Chelsea vs Malmo Prediction & Betting Tips

CHELSEA host Malmo in the Champions League on Wednesday night. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies.

Chelsea vs Malmo | Wednesday 20^th October 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport

The Thomas Tuchel reign at Chelsea celebrates its nine month anniversary next week and – with a Champions League to its name already it is has certainly been a success.

However, I think it is accurate to suggest that they’ve been efficient and effective rather than an enjoyable watch for the neutral. To date, the West London club have played 42 matches under their German manager and have scored 61 goals and conceded just 23, meaning that their games have averaged exactly two goals every encounter.

There is a reason punters are always looking at backing Tuchel’s side to win and under 3.5 goals to be scored – it has landed in six of their nine matches in The Champions League under him for example – and at odds against versus Malmo (with Bet365) I can see why that would appeal to some.

I don’t think I am belittling them to suggest that just qualifying for the Champions League was a success for Malmo and they certainly did it the hard way. They beat Rangers 4-2 on aggregate despite getting a player sent off with the tie level at 2-2 at Ibrox with 45 minutes to go and followed this up by withstanding a fine effort by Ludogorets in Bulgaria to ultimately win the tie 4-3.

They are yet to score a goal in the group stage of the competition but probably feel they are ‘due one’ given that they managed 20 shots – with four on target – in games against Juventus (3-0 loss) and Zenit St Petersburg (4-0 loss).

I don’t generally like opposing sides scoring when they are ‘due one’ so I would rather not take the 21/20 with Bet365 on Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals and instead take the 5/1 with the same firm on a 2-0 home victory.

This scoreline has occurred nine time in Tuchel’s 42 matches and while they are facing quite an inferior opposition to most encounters in that stretch, the fact that they have a Premier League game on Saturday at 12:30 suggests to me that Tuchel will look to ring changes once the second goal goes in – which hopefully isn’t too early (and it rarely is under him).

Elsewhere, my eyes were drawn to Malmo’s record in Europe this season. In eight matches this term, they’ve recorded nine cards and the biggest offender – who is starting tomorrow is Franz Brorsson. The Swedish centre half has three yellow cards in his seven matches in this competition and given the quality of Chelsea’s strikeforce,

I like the look of Bet365’s 3/1 on him ending up in referee’s Francois Letexier’s notebook. Letexier averages over four cards a game in Ligue 1 and while his European experience is limited, seven yellows and a red in two Champions League matches suggests he isn’t afraid to get his cards out. 3/1 on Brorsson seems excellent value to me in a game in which Malmo will be up against it.