SATURDAY 3pm Premier League kick-offs are back on the agenda and we asked value hunter Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) to share his favourite fancies from the opening weekend.
Burnley vs Brighton | Saturday 14th August 2021, 15:00
It makes a change having more than one game to choose from on a Saturday afternoon and what game says ‘fans are back’ more than Burnley vs Brighton!
Only one place and two points separated these two sides last term, with Brighton ending in 16th and Burnley 17th. However, expected points had Brighton in fifth spot, 27 points ahead of Sean Dyche’s side.
Despite this, I actually think it is the home side who are the value in this encounter. Last season Burnley struggled at Turf Moor, with just four victories from 19 league games. However, home advantage was eradicated last season, with all matches behind closed doors. T
he previous season – with fans in stadiums for the majority of the season – Burnley won eight and lost seven at home overall but their record against sides outside of the Big Six was exceptional, winning eight, drawing two and losing three.
Brighton’s record against the same group of teams was three wins, seven draws and three defeats. Last season The Seagulls drew 14 of their 38 league games, including both matches against Burnley and such stats suggest that a draw is a real runner, especially with eight of the last 11 games between these two ending in a stalemate.
I did consider backing the draw but actually believe that Burnley are too big a price so would rather take them at 5/4 with MansionBet in the Draw No Bet market. When these two played at Turf Moor last season, the home side were the better side in the 1-1 draw, managing 20 shots to their opponents 10, with Brighton manager Graham Potter conceding that his side were fortunate.
Also in this encounter, I like the look of Chris Wood in the anytime market at 7/4 with Bet365. He is not certain to play as he was at The Olympics with New Zealand but if he does, this looks like value to me, with the big striker the focal point for The Clarets and having scored in six of his last 11 league matches.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace | Saturday 14th August 2021, 15:00
I did initially look at Under 2.5 Goals in the Everton vs Southampton market but didn’t think there was quite enough value there so I will instead go with a Chelsea win and Under 3.5 Goals when they host Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge.
Under Thomas Tuchel, the West London outfit look a lot more solid than they did under previous manager Frank Lampard, evidenced by the 11 clean sheets in 19 league matches since the German took over.
Additionally, 10 of those matches saw them win and three goals or fewer scored and given that they face a Crystal Palace side that a) are in transition and b) managed to score in just two of their eight matches against last seasons top four then I think this is great value.
With Romelu Lukaku back at Chelsea, I expect more goals from them than they managed last term but they will still remain a resolute outfit defensively and evens with GentingBet on a home win and Under 3.5 Goals is perfectly acceptable to me.
Best Bets
Burnley vs Brighton – Burnley Draw No Bet (5/4 MansionBet)
Burnley vs Brighton – Chris Wood to score anytime (7/4 Bet365)
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace – Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals (1/1 GentingBet)
