ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Aston Villa host Chelsea n the Premier League on Sunday.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea | Sunday 23rd May 2021, 16:00 | Sky Sports
After one of the most bizarre seasons, Chelsea are now 1/7 to qualify for next season’s Champions League. They must equal or better Leicester’s result against Spurs to do so.
After completing this game on Sunday, Thomas Tuchel will have taken care of 50% of Chelsea’s Premier League season, which is identical to Frank Lampard.
They have picked up 38 points since his first game against Wolves, a huge nine points better off than Lampard’s record in a game less.
Their change in fortunes is no more so easily underlined than in their defensive data. Tuchel’s Chelsea average just 7.7 shots against per game, compared to 10 per game under Lampard.
In midweek, they were simply excellent: won the xG battle against Leicester (CHE 3.08 – 0.98 LEI) and they showed how robust they are in defence, despite a lapse of concentration for Leicester’s goal.
Chelsea have only allowed over 1.00 expected goal in 2/18 matches since Tuchel came in. Villa have lost 5 of their 6 games at Villa Park against the Top 7 teams and I think Chelsea win here to makew that 6 out of 7.
I think Chelsea get the job done here in a game featuring fewer than 4 goals. That’s 11/8 at the majority of bookmakers and is a good way of getting The Blues onside. 17/18 of their wins under TC have come with fewer than 4 goals in the match.
Away from home, they’ve won 6/8 games in matches with under 3.5 goals. For Villa, 9/15 of their losses this campaign have seen under 3.5 goals cop.
Given the appointment of one of the Premier League’s stricter referees, Stuart Attwell, then cards could come into play. As such, I like the look of Both teams over 0 second half cards at 20/23 with Bet365.
Attwell has been a good referee for card punters this season, giving 4+ cards in 17/22. He has given both sides a second half card in 15/22 (68%) games. In his four Chelsea games it has landed in 3/4 (75%) and for Villa its landed in 2/3 games (66%).
Over the course of the season, Villa have seen this bet land in just under half, at 18/37 games (49%). For Chelsea, it is at 16/37 (43%) and 6/18 (33%) under Tuchel management.
This bet should work in our favour for Chelsea whether they’re hanging on to a lead or if they become frustrated as the game wears on. As for Villa, they’re always good for a card, being booked in 30/37 (81%) games.
Odds of 20/23 are worth of a play, suggesting a 54% chance of a winning wager but it has landed in 68% of the referees’ PL games this season.
In the player markets, one man who is loving getting booked at the moment is John McGinn. He has been booked in his last four games, making 2, 3, 2 and 2 fouls in this sequence.
The Premier League’s leading card taker, with 11 cards in 36 games, should never be 7/2 for a card. It’s overpriced and if this were La Liga or Serie A, he’d be odds-on, due to stricter referees.
He may have Mason Mount, Timo Werner and Christian Pulisic coming into his zone who are quick and tricky. It’s hard to know when his streak for a card will come to an end but he’s a feisty player and perhaps a future Villa captain so will want to impress the returning Villa crowd.
I’m playing a McGinn and Mount double to be carded at 28/1 with Bet365. Mount commits over 1 foul per game and could slot into centre midfield. Ref Attwell has booked an opposing CM in 3/3 games when refereeing Villa.
Granted, Mount only has two cards, but one of these came from Attwell at Wolves and he should have more cards to his name. He’s overdue a card.
Best Bets
Aston Villa vs Chelsea – Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals (11/8 SkyBet)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea – Both Teams Over 0 Second-Half Cards (20/23 Bet365)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea – John McGinn to be carded (7/2 Bet365)
