ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Burnley host Leeds in the Premier League on Saturday.
Burnley vs Leeds | Saturday 15th May 2021, 12:30 | BT Sport
Leeds travel to Lancashire on Saturday to face Burnley, looking to cement their place in the top half of the Premier League.
They were comfortable winners over Tottenham last weekend and have had a phenomenal season considering they were only promoted last year. They recorded an xG of 2.62 against Tottenham and deserved the win.
Leeds are on a great run, only losing in one of their last 8 games. Burnley are proving inconsistent, scoring in their last 9 games but only winning four of their last 16 games.
Burnley are now safe from Premier League relegation, but realistically have been since the turn of the year. Leeds are pushing for a top half finish, so I think we will see an entertaining game on Saturday.
Burnley’s form at Turf Moor is worrying given they have no win since January. But they have seen BTTS bank in 6 of their last 7 at home. With Leeds playing well recently and scoring three times against Spurs, it’s hard not to see multiple Leeds goals.
Leeds are yet to draw an away game so it seems likely there will be a winner. Leeds to win and both teams to score is the play, at 10/3 in Bet365’s Bet Builder, with the 2-1 correct score being my best guess.
Elsewhere, Leeds stalwart Stuart Dallas has been chalked up at 13/8 to have a shot on target at Turf Moor and 11/2 to score anytime and these are definitely too big.
Dallas has had a shot on target in 14/35 (40%) of games, but in only 18/35 has he started in midfield. He has had one in 9/18 when starting in the middle of the park and has a shot on target to his name in 4 of his last 6, hitting 2+ – available at 10/1 – in two of these.
The midfielder has landed 18 of his 42 shots this season on target (42%), suggesting odds of 13/8 with Betfair are too long.
The Northern Irish utility man also has eight goals in 35 apps. However, as I’ve said, he has only started 18 of 35 in midfield and has notched five goals in his last 16 games. So that recent record is roughly a goal every three games, so why on earth is he priced up at 11/2 here, implying a 15% chance of a winning wager?
Dallas scored first against Spurs last weekend when in the right spot at the right time, but also has a brilliant shot on him.
6 of Dallas’ 8 goals have come against the league’s top three sides, Man City, Man United and Leicester. He scored a brilliant double at the Etihad in a recent away game when in an attacking midfield role, and should keep his place in the midfield here, given he has started every game and has only missed nine minutes this season.
If he were to start on the right of the midfield, he will have opportunities. In three of Burnley’s last 4 losses, a right winger has scored: Mason Greenwood, Jacob Murphy and Stuart Armstrong.
The higher lines have to be worth a go too, 66/1 at Paddy Power for him to score two or more goals is ludicrous. It is as short as 22/1 at Sky Bet, William Hill and others. Unfortunately, he has never scored a professional hat trick. To do so on Saturday against Sean Dyche’s Burnley is 500/1. He couldn’t, could he?
Best Bets
Burnley vs Leeds – Leeds to win and Both Teams To Score (10/3 Bet365)
Burnley vs Leeds – Stuart Dallas 1+ shot on target (13/8 Betfair)
Burnley vs Leeds – Stuart Dallas to score anytime (11/2 Betfair)
