CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Sunday night's showdown between Spurs and Crystal Palace.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace | Sunday 7th March 2021, 19:15 | Sky Sports
Roy Hodgson and his Crystal Palace side make the short trip to North London as they go head to head with a resurgent Spurs outfit.
It’s been a tough year already for Palace who’ve won just four of their eleven league games so far. They are pretty much guaranteed to stay up this year so don’t have too much to play for but will do whatever they can to gain the bragging rights come full time.
Spurs had their standard mid-season blip in form but have now won their last three games in all competitions without conceding and will look to make that four on the spin.
Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has a torrid record against Spurs, winning just one of his last 18 games against them and that came way back in 2008.
Spurs have it all to play for as they fight to tussle their way back into the top four and on paper, should easily dispose of this Crystal Palace side, but with the Lilywhites, nothing is ever straight forward.
Key stats
Tottenham:
● Commit on average 13.8 fouls per game when playing at home (most in the league).
● When playing against sides in the top 5 most fouled list, Spurs commit on average 14.33
fouls per game.
● Are the second most fouled side per game on average and are receiving 12.3 fouls per
game.
● Have seen 2+ cards in 1/3 matches against sides in the top 5 most fouled per game.
● In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 2/3 occasions.
● Have won their last three games in all competitions without conceding.
● Have seen over 2.5 goals in six of their last seven games (all competitions).
● Spurs have scored first in nine of the last 10 meetings between these two.
● Are unbeaten in their last 11 EPL meetings with Crystal Palace.
Team news:
● Giovani Lo Celso remains Tottenham's only injury worry, though he will return to action later this month.
● Jose Mourinho made a couple of changes to the side that beat Burnley 4-0 for Thursday's 1-0 win at Fulham.
● Sergio Reguilon, Serge Aurier and Lucas Moura, all of whom dropped out, may return to the side, though Dele Alli is hoping to keep his spot in attack.
Crystal Palace:
● Commit on average 10.4 fouls per game away from home this season.
● When playing against sides in the top 5 most fouled list, Palace commits on average 14.4 fouls per game.
● Are the third most fouled side per game on average and are receiving 11.6 fouls per game.
● Have seen 2+ cards in 3/5 matches against sides in the top 5 most fouled per game.
● In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 2/5 occasions.
● Have won just one of their six away games against top-half sides this season – an
opening day victory at Old Trafford.
● There hasn’t been more than four cards in any of Crystal Palace’s last 10 games.
● Are winless in their last five EPL London derbies – with four ending level.
● Manager Roy Hodsgon has won just one of his 18 matches against Spurs – when he was
manager of Fulham at Craven Cottage in 2008.
Team news:
● Roy Hodgson is hoping to have Nathaniel Clyne and Tyrick Micthell back for the trip to Tottenham, but the better news is that Wilfried Zaha is fit to start.
● The Crystal Palace boss remains without no fewer than six players for the trip across the capital, including James McCarthy, who was forced off on the hour mark against Manchester United.
● Jairo Riedewald is set to replace McCarthy in the middle of the park in what may be Hodgson's only change to his XI.
Referee: Stuart Attwell
● Awarding an average of 4.13 yellow cards per game this season.
● Is awarding on average 22.67 free kicks per game.
● In his last 10 games officiated, the away side has seen 20+ booking points in eight of
them.
Analysis
My first pick is for both sides to see 11+ free kicks in the game and both teams to see 3+ corners in the match at a great price of 15/8.
This bet landed quite comfortably in the reverse fixture earlier on this season and we now have the added incentive that Spurs have hit some form and we’re approaching the business end of the season.
The referee is Stuart Attwell who awards the highest number of yellows per game than any other EPL referee and he awards a decent number of free kicks.
It might not be the most heated of London derbies but its a derby nonetheless.
If results go their way then SPurs can jump up to sixth and within just two points of the top four, so it’s a must-win and I think we’re in for an entertaining match up.
Both of these sides feature in the top 5 average most fouled per game list, Wilfried Zaha is reportedly returning to the side and he wins a hatful of fouls and also wins a lot of corners.
I’m more than happy to take this bet at this price.
My second pick is in a similar vein to the first but is a little bit safe. I’m plumping for Spurs to be awarded 9 or more free-kicks in the game and Palace to see six or more free-kicks in the second half.
If this game ends up being quite tight, which I think could easily happen just like it did when Spurs took on Fulham recently, then I think Palace will pressure Spurs to try and get something out of the game and as a result, see a lot of free-kicks in the second half.
This bet also landed in the reverse fixture and at 10/11, I think this is a strong pick.
Best Bets
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace – Both Teams Over 10.5 Free Kicks and Both Teams 3+ Corners (15/8 Bet365)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace – Spurs Over 8.5 Free Kicks Awarded and Crystal Palace Over 5.5 Second-Half Free Kicks Awarded (10/11 Bet365)
