WOLVES welcome Leeds in Friday night's Premier League encounter. Rob Mason (@Sturdys29) delivers his betting analysis.
Wolves vs Leeds | Friday 19th February 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Two of the more inconsistent teams in the Premier League meet for the first game of the weekend on Friday night as 12th-placed Wolves take on 11th-placed Leeds.
The pressure was beginning to mount on Nuno Espirito Santo but the West Midlands club have now picked up two wins from their last three (beating Arsenal and Southampton).
Part of the reason for the Old Gold’s revival has been by reverting to a back five rather than a flat back four. It was as a back five that took Wolves into the Europa League and has generally left them looking more solid defensively.
I don’t think many Leeds fans will be unhappy with the season they’ve have had thus far. For a promoted team to be safely nestled in mid-table is a credit to them, and they have been refreshing for neutrals to watch.
It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Yorkshire club – only drawing two games – whilst winning six and losing five of their most recent 11.
The betting angles
In the outright market, the bookies have Wolves generally at 8/5, with the draw at 9/4 and Leeds at 15/8. This is a game I have struggled to find an outright angle on with both teams inconsistent. The draw I would argue is the most likely, but I cannot back that with Leeds’ lack of stalemates.
In the player props, I do like Leeds centre back Liam Cooper to rack up some tackles. The Scottish defender has achieved 3 tackles in 7 out of his last 10 Premier League games (he was one short in two other matches). The way I expect the game to pan out is, Wolves looking to hit Leeds on the break and I believe Cooper may have some work to do.
Poker Stars have Cooper priced at 33/20 for 3 tackles, which seems reasonable and will be my main angle for the game. And if expected that price quickly disappears, Sky Bet have Cooper down at 5/4 to achieve the same mark.
Patrick Bamford has come from plying his trade in the Championship to succeeding in the top-flight. He already has 12 goals this season, but it is not his goalscoring exploits I am focusing on.
Bamford is also tied top of the assist charts for Leeds with 5 (with Klick and Raphinha). Sky Bet have the Leeds talisman at 9/1 (to assist a goal) which looks overpriced to me considering he is half the price elsewhere.
To add further in the assist market, I am also having a small wager on Bamford and Pedro Neto to have an assist each.
Leeds games have tended to bring plenty of goals this season (fourth for goals with 1.7 on average and 1.78 goals against) which should lead to more Wolves chances than they would usually expect.
Neto has been a bright spark recently on the wing for the hosts (he is also top for assists this term on 4) and partnered up with Bamford at 50/1 with Sky Bet, I will have some loose change on as a long shot.
Best Bets
Wolves vs Leeds – Liam Cooper 3+ tackles (33/20 PokerStars)
Wolves vs Leeds – Patrick Bamford to provide an assist (9/1 Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Leeds – Patrick Bamford and Pedro Neto to provide an assist (50/1 Sky Bet)
