CHELSEA welcome Newcastle in Monday night's Premier League encounter. Rob Mason (@Sturdys29) delivers his betting analysis.
Chelsea vs Newcastle | Monday 15th February 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Monday night football returns to Stamford Bridge with Newcastle visiting West London to face Chelsea.
Did Roman Abramovic make the right decision in sacking Frank Lampard? I guess only time will tell but it has been a positive start for Thomas Tuchel. Since the German took over the reins, he’s gained 3 wins and a draw and the steadied the ship.
Tuchel has brought a more possession-based style y and seems to have improved upon a leaky defence, only conceding one goal since arrival. It was however a below par performance in the FA Cup in the week, but Chelsea still progressed to the next round with a workman like 1-0 victory (the Blues only managed the one shot on target).
It might still be a worrying time for the Geordie faithful sitting one place above the relegation zone, but Newcastle remain comfortably clear of Fulham.
Newcastle have picked up a vital win recently at Goodison park and then held on to another 3 points at St James’ against Southampton last time out. The Magpies were playing for 40 minutes with 10 men over the Saints, after Jeff Hendrick got his marching orders in what was a resolute performance.
The 3 points against the Saints did come at a cost for Steve Bruce’s men, with top scorer Callum Wilson picking up a hamstring injury which could see him out for up to 8 weeks.
Wilson has been fundamental to Newcastle this season and has contributed to 60% of their Premier League goals. Steve Bruce will have to try and fill the void left by his injury and cannot call upon many of his key defenders (Fernandez, Manquillo, Schar and skipper Jamaal Lascelles).
The betting angles
In the outright market Chelsea are generally 1/4 with the draw at 5/1 and Newcastle 11/1.
All the stars align to a Chelsea a win, having a newfound confidence under Tuchel and Newcastle are without star man Wilson. The 1/4 on offer is far too short to back alone, but my main angle is using the Bet365 Bet Builder and the bet proposed being Chelsea win, Under 4.5 Goals and Over 5.5 Chelsea Corners.
All Chelsea games under Tuchel’s tenure have had a maximum of 3 goals so far and Newcastle away games have seen under 4.5 goals in 10 out of 11.
The corner count for Chelsea has also picked up since the Germans appointment. Although a small sample size, Chelsea have averaged 7.75 corners and Newcastle have averaged 6.45 corners against this campaign away.
Newcastle’s turn in results has been brought around in part by the change in the brand of football being a more attacking one which has meant more shots of late. Bet365 are offering Newcastle to have over 2.5 shots on target at 5/2 which looks to big to my eye.
The Geordies have achieved the bet proposed in their last 4 league games and this bet did land for Chelsea’s opponents when playing Sheff Utd and Barnsley (last 2 games).
In charge of the whistle for the game is Peter Bankes, who averages 3.67 cards per game – the 5th highest in the league.
One player who I feel is priced to high to receive a card is Chelsea skipper Cesar Azpilicueta.
The Spaniard has received a card in 4 out of 11 of his league games this season and will likely face the lively Allan Saint Maximin down his channel. At 6/1 with Bet Victor the price looks big to my eye.
Best Bets
Chelsea vs Newcastle – Chelsea to win, Under 4.5 Goals and Over 5.5 Chelsea Corners (1/1 Bet365)
Chelsea vs Newcastle – Newcastle to have Over 2.5 Shots-on-Target (5/2 Bet365)
Chelsea vs Newcastle – Cesar Azpilicueta to receive a card (6/1 BetVictor)
