DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday's 3pm Premier League encounters.
Crystal Palace vs Wolves | Saturday 30th January 2021, 15:00 | Sky Sports
In truth, the standout bet to me this weekend is Fulham to beat West Brom, but writing 300 words on how poor my own side are doesn’t really appeal and so I will look (Lookman anytime is probably value to score in that fixture by the way) at alternatives from other games.
So Selhurst Park is my first port of call and it is fair to say that goals are unlikely to be on the agenda. In their last ten matches in all competitions Palace have scored just seven goals, while Wolves have managed just 12 in their last ten.
Under 2.5 goals is not big enough for me to get involved, so I will find an alternative angle. A 0-0 half time score was considered but I will instead opt for the BTTS No angle, which is 4/5 with Paddy Power. While BTTS has landed in 50% of the matches for both sides this term, five of their six head to head matches in the last two seasons have seen this angle land.
Given both are struggling for goals, I think a single goal may be enough and if it isn’t, I think a breakaway goal for the side leading is more likely than an equaliser.
Manchester City vs Sheffield United | Saturday 30th January 2021, 15:00 | Sky Sports
The Blades recorded an unlikely victory on Wednesday night, with a 2-1 victory at Old Trafford. That game was a match up between a side who have been quite fortunate this term (Manchester United) and a side who have been unlucky (Sheffield United). Sheffield United were a best price of 11/1 in midweek and they are 25s on Saturday and I think that shows that this is a tougher task for Chris Wilder’s men.
I found City a relatively easy side to call for the first four years of Pep Guardiola’s reign, but this season they are far less potent going forward and far better defensively. Despite being top of the table they are on course to score 30 goals fewer and concede nine goals less than they allowed last term.
Since a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham on 21st November, City have let in just two in 11 league matches – an own goal against West Bromwich Albion and an injury time consolation against Chelsea in a 3-1 victory for The Citizens.
In that 11 game sample, City have won three encounters by two goals to nil and while The Blades may have just eight points from 20 league games, they have conceded just 33 goals and allowed three or more in just four of those matches.
City are without Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero for this game and while I expect them to dominate, there is little evidence that this will be a hammering. 11/2 on a 2-0 home victory may seem short, but I am happy with Bet365’s price given said bet has landed in three of City’s last 11 league matches.
As I do not expect that many goals, I was tempted by the 6/1 Bet365 are offering on Ilkay Gundogan to score first. However, the 6/4 on the German to score anytime is fine in my view given that he is their likely penalty taker and has also scored in six of their last eight league matches. I will keep it simple and plump for the safer play.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Wolves – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (4/5 Paddy Power)
Manchester City vs Sheffield United – Ilkay Gundogan to score (6/4 Bet365)
Manchester City vs Sheffield United – Manchester City 2-0 Sheffield United (11/2 Bet365)
