CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Monday's showdown between Crystal Palace and Leicester.
Crystal Palace vs Leicester | Monday 28th December 2020, 15:00 | Amazon Prime
Crystal Palace welcome Leicester to Selhurst Park on Monday afternoon with Brendan Rodgers and his side on the hunt for their seventh away win of the season.
The Foxes have been irresistible on the road this season, winning six of their opening seven away matches – only losing once away, to champions Liverpool. During that time they’ve travelled and claimed victories at Manchester City, Arsenal, Leeds and Tottenham. Main man Jamie Vardy is in red hot form on the road, scoring a colossal 19 goals in as many games.
Roy Hodgson and his men, on the other hand, have not won at home in the league since early November – a 4-1 victory at home to Leeds. Since then they’ve earned one draw against Spurs, lost to Newcastle and got thumped 7-0 by Liverpool.
Palace are having an extremely tough time at the moment and it has to be said that if they were able to choose who they played next, Leicester would be one of the last teams they’d want to face.
Key stats
Crystal Palace:
- Commit on average 11.6 fouls per game when playing at home this season.
- Receive on average 11.9 fouls per game when playing at home this season.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 4/7 home games this season.
- In games at home to sides in the top half of the disciplinary table, their opposition has seen 2+ cards on 3/4 occasions.
- Have conceded 10 goals in their last two games without scoring once themselves.
- Have not won their final league game in any of the last eight calendar years.
- Have kept just one clean sheet in their last 23 EPL games.
Team news:
- Roy Hodgson will most likely make a number of changes from the side that was well beaten 3-0 by Aston Villa on Boxing Day. Andros Townsend, Michy Batshuayi, Jairo Riedewald, James Tomkins, Nathaniel Clyne, James McCarthy and Jordan Ayew will hope to be considered for a start.
- Absentees – Gary Cahill, Mamadou Sakho, Connor Wickham, Nathan Ferguson, Martin Kelly and Wayne Hennessy.
Leicester:
- Commit on average just 8.1 fouls per game when playing away from home this season (lowest).
- Receive on average 12.6 fouls per game when playing away from home this season.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 5/7 away games so far this season.
- In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on just 2/7 occasions.
- When playing against sides in the top half of the disciplinary table, they have seen 2+ cards on 5/7 occasions.
- Have won six of their last seven away matches.
- Have won their last two EPL games in London, have not won three consecutively in the capital since 1966.
- Jamie Vardy has scored 19 goals in his last 19 EPL away games. He’s also scored nine goals in his last 12 EPL appearances in London.
Team news:
- Brendan Rodgers expects to have Caglar Soyuncu back in the next few matches but the defender remains a doubt here.
- Rodgers will ponder changes given the 48-hour turnaround from Saturday's 2-2 draw with Manchester United.
- Christian Fuchs, Nampalys Mendy, Ayoze Perez and Dennis Praet will push for starts on Monday.
- Absentees: Ricardo Pereira.
Referee: Graham Scott
- Has awarded 19 yellow cards and four red cards in six appearances. An average of 3.17 yellow cards and 0.64 red cards per game so far this season.
- In his last 20 games refereed, both teams have seen at least a card in 17 of them (85%), the home side has seen at least a card in 19 of them (95%) and the away side has seen at least a card in 18 of them (90%).
- Two of those previous 20 saw Crystal Palace playing at home and their opposition saw two cards on both occasions.
Analysis
My first pick is on William Hill, this bet is only available on their build your odds section and it requires a minimum of two selections to offer odds. Bet365 have this priced at 4/6 whereas we are getting 17/20 on William Hill.
When Leicester have played other sides in the top half of the disciplinary table this season, they have seen 2+ cards on 5/7 occasions. Meanwhile, when Palace have played against other sides in the top half of the disciplinary table, their opposition has seen 2+ cards on 3/4 occasions.
The Foxes are one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the league and I fully expect them to pick up a couple of cards here.
My second bet is another build your odds from William Hill. I’m going with Leicester to score, Leicester 2+ cards and Leicester double chance at 6/4.
Palace have kept just one clean sheet in their last 23 EPL games and have also conceded 10 in their last two without scoring themselves. The Foxes have scored in all but one of their away games this season – that one being to Liverpool.
My final pick is for Jamie Vardy to have 2+ shots on target. He has had at least one in every single EPL away game he has played in this season and 2+ in 4/6. The two in which he didn’t were away to Liverpool and Spurs.
With Crystal Palace conceding around 13 shots per game, and Vardy on an excellent scoring run of 19 goals in his last 19 away games, I expect him to have another couple here. SkyBet has priced this up at 11/8 whereas other bookmakers have this as low as 5/6.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Leicester – Leicester 20+ Booking Points; 20+ Match Booking Points (17/20 William Hill)
Crystal Palace vs Leicester – Leicester to score; Leicester 2+ Cards; Leicester Double Chance – (6/4 William Hill)
Crystal Palace vs Leicester – Jamie Vardy 2+ Shots on target (11/8 SkyBet)
