CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Thursday night's Europa League showdown between Spurs and Ludogorets.
Tottenham vs Ludogorets | Thursday 26th November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Jose Mourinho’s men welcome Ludogorets Razgrad to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Thursday. Confidence will be sky high after claiming victory against Manchester City at the weekend and, on paper, they should breeze past a Razgrad side who’ve not played a competitive match in almost three weeks.
Spurs won the reverse fixture 3-1 and now find themselves top of the group on goal difference. They’re level on points with both Antwerp and LASK, but with those two facing each other, this game provides the perfect opportunity for Spurs to take a step further towards progressing as group winners.
Stanislav Genchev’s side are currently top of the Bulgarian First League. Following their defeat to Spurs, they claimed a huge win away to CSKA Sofia. Unfortunately for them, that was their last competitive fixture as meetings with Sportist Svoge and Botev Plovdiv either side of the international break were postponed.
The Eagles are currently having a torrid time in the Europa League, the Bulgarian side have lost all three group matches so far.
Tottenham:
- Have won FIVE of their last SIX UEL matches.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in SIX of Spurs last SEVEN UEL games.
- Have scored 2+ goals in SIX of their last SEVEN UEL games.
- Have received just ONE card across their THREE UEL group stage games so far.
Team news:
- Toby Alderweireld was forced off with 10 minutes to go in Tottenham's 2-0 win over Manchester City and misses out and with Joe Rodon ineligible, Davinson Sanchez is expected to start alongside Eric Dier at the heart of the defence.
- Jose Mourinho has confirmed that Matt Doherty has returned to training after a bout of COVID-19 and he should start at right-back.
- Erik Lamela and Harry Winks will both be assessed.
- Carlos Vinicius, Gareth Bale and Giovani Lo Celso are among those pushing to start.
Ludogorets:
- Have lost FIVE of their last SIX UEL games.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in their last THREE UEL matches.
- Have conceded 2+ goals in FIVE of their last SIX UEL games.
- Have seen at least a card in all THREE of their UEL group stage games so far.
Team news:
- Higinio and Wanderson are Ludogorets' only injury concerns ahead of their trip to Tottenham.
- The Bulgarian side started in a 4-4-2 setup when the pair met earlier this month, but may revert to a 4-3-3 in the capital.
- Georgi Terziev should get the nod ahead of Cosmin Moti at the heart of the defence.
Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili
- Has taken charge of THREE UEL fixtures since November last year, awarding a total of 12 cards. An average of FOUR cards per game.
Analysis
My first pick is a Bet Builder. I’m going with Ludogorets to be awarded over 13.5 free kicks but Spurs to see under 3 cards in total. This bet has landed in TWO of the last THREE UEL games that the visitors have played, the one in which it didn’t land was when the Spanish Mike Dean (Javier Estrada) was in charge.
Thursday’s referee is Giorgi Kruashvili who has a much lower average and is likely to be far more lenient. Spurs are yet to see 2+ cards in any Europa League game this season and i don’t think they’ll start here, on home soil.
My second bet is exactly the same one I picked in the reverse fixture. I’m going with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. It landed then and I do think it could land again here. It’s also 6/4 on Bet365 yet just 11/10 elsewhere.
Of the last 20 Europa League games that Spurs have played at home, they’ve conceded in 14 of them (70%). Meanwhile, of Ludogorets last 20 away games in the UEL, they’ve also scored in 14 of them (70%). I think this is somewhat overpriced and for that reason, I’m happy to have a play on a bet that won for us last time out.
Best Bets
Tottenham vs Ludogorets – Over 13.5 Ludogorets Free Kicks and Under 3 Tottenham Cards (13/10 Bet365)
Tottenham vs Ludogorets – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score (6/4 Bet365)
