CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Tuesday night's Nations League clash between Spain and Germany.
Spain vs Germany | Tuesday 17th November 2020, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Spain welcome Germany to Seville knowing that only a win will do if they are to seal top spot in the group.
Luis Enrique’s side will need to be at their best if they’re to make it through and their current form doesn’t inspire confidence. They’ve drawn their two most recent games, against the Netherlands in a friendly and against Switzerland in Basel. Had they won in Basel, they’d be sitting top of Group four.
However, two uncharacteristically missed penalties by captain Sergio Ramos, meant that the visit of Joachim Low’s side is now one of even greater importance.
Germany currently sit top of the pile and a point ahead of their Spanish counterparts. They are unbeaten in all competitions since losing 4-2 to the Netherlands in a European Championship qualifier last September. Consistency has been synonymous with Germany’s performances in competition football and they’ll back themselves to come away with something in this one.
Key stats
Spain:
- Have not lost a home game since October 2018, losing 3-2 to England. They’ve won all EIGHT since then.
- Have scored at least TWICE in 8/10 of their most recent home games.
- Have seen at least a card in 8/10 of their most recent home games.
Team news:
- Luis Enrique has sprung a surprise in goal during the international break, handing Unai Simon his debut over Manchester United ace David de Gea.
- A knee injury rules Barcelona midfielder Sergio Busquets out for the home side, as he joins Jesus Navas, Ansu Fati and Jose Gaya on the sidelines.
- Rodri is the obvious replacement for Busquets, while Alvaro Morata and Sergio Canales will also push for starts when Spain host Germany on Tuesday.
- The likes of Mikel Oyarzabal, Adama Traore, Marco Asensio, Gerard Moreno and Koke are also options for Enrique.
Germany:
- Have not lost an away game since October 2018, losing 2-1 to France. They’ve won FIVE and drawn ONE since then.
- In their last TEN away games, the opposition has seen at least a card on 7/10 occasions.
- Have scored in every away game they’ve played in since October 2018.
- Are unbeaten in all competitions since losing 4-2 to the Netherlands in a European Championship qualifier last September
Team news:
- Germany welcome back Real Madrid midfielder Toni Kroos from suspension but have now lost Chelsea centre-back Antonio Rudiger to a one-game ban.
- Kroos will take Robin Koch's place in central midfield if Germany persists with a 4-3-3 formation here otherwise Ilkay Gundogan would be the man to make way in a 3-4-3 system.
- Missing the likes of Mats Hummels and Emre Can, Germany have a dilemma at centre-back with Rudiger now unavailable. Rather than start Jonathan Tah, who hasn't started a single league game this season, Matthias Ginter may move inside from right-back.
- Timo Werner, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane should once again be Germany's front three on Tuesday night.
Key facts:
- Of their FIVE most recent head-to-heads, under 2.5 goals has landed in every single one.
- Spain have scored in FOUR of their last FIVE matches against Germany.
Referee: Andreas Ekberg (SWE)
- Averages exactly 3.00 cards per game when officiating Nations League matches.
- In his last TWENTY games officiated, he has shown the home side a card in 18 of them (90%).
Analysis
My first pick is for Spain to see at least a card but for neither team to see THREE or more cards overall. It’s always risky putting overs and unders into a single betbuilder, but I feel this is an excellent price given the statistics behind it.
The Spaniards have seen at least a card in 8/10 of their most recent home games (80%) and referee Ekberg has shown the home side a card in 18 of his last 20 games officiated (90%).
Alongside those, he averages just THREE cards per game in this competition and I just don’t see either of these two seeing three cards in this fixture.
My second pick is a bit of a longshot but I really like the price given recent history. The last two games between these two has seen this bet land and I think it could again. I think there’s a big chance that these two cancel each other out.
Germany don't need a win but also need to ensure they don’t lose in order to seal the top spot. Spain haven’t scored more than once in their last FOUR games and I don’t think they will here either.
Not only has this bet landed in the TWO last head-to-head meetings between Spain and Germany, but it’s also landed in Spains last TWO games.
Best Bets
Spain vs Germany – Spain Over 0 Cards and Both Teams Under 3 Cards (6/4 Bet365)
Spain vs Germany – 1-1 correct score (6/1 Bet365)
