CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Sunday's showdown between Wolves and Newcastle.
Wolves vs Newcastle | Sunday 25th October 2020, 16:30 | Sky Sports
Wolves welcome Newcastle to Molineux, and will be aiming to make it three wins from three in the Premier League.
The Old Gold are coming off the back of two hard-fought victories against newly-promoted sides Fulham and Leeds respectively. It’s been a relatively average start to the season for Nuno Espirito Santo's men. They’ve won THREE of their opening FIVE EPL games but have also lost heavily to West Ham, were beaten by Manchester City and have been knocked out of the League Cup by Championship side Stoke.
It’s an all too familiar theme for many so far this season, however, despite the inconsistencies, Wolves find themselves in ninth but just FOUR points off of Everton at the summit of the table.
Steve Bruce’s side has improved drastically in terms of their goal scoring prowess, they’ve slotted SEVEN times in their FIVE games so far and at least once in all but one of their eight fixtures in all competitions.
It’s their defence which still raises questions. Last time out they were just FIVE minutes away from claiming a point at home to Manchester United, but THREE late goals left a sour taste as they lost by FOUR goals to ONE on home soil.
Key Stats
Wolves:
- Commit on average 11 fouls per game when playing at home this season.
- Receive on average 6.5 fouls per game when playing at home this season (least in the league).
- Have seen under 2.5 goals land in 12 of their last 15 EPL matches.
- Have kept a clean sheet in SEVEN of their last NINE EPL home matches.
- Have seen under 2.5 goals in FIVE of their last 6 home matches against Newcastle United in all competitions.
- Are undefeated in their last FIVE home matches against Newcastle United in all competitions.
- Despite keeping SEVEN clean sheets in their last NINE, they lost both of the games in which they did concede.
- Have failed to win any of their last SIX games in which they have conceded.
Team News:
- With Marcal returning to action last week, Jonny is the only player in the treatment room at Wolves, with the Spaniard set to miss out until the New Year.
Newcastle:
- Commit on average EIGHT fouls per game when playing away this season (least in the league).
- Receive on average 12.5 fouls per game when playing away this season.
- Are unbeaten in their last SIX away games against Wolves.
- Manager Steve Bruce is winless in his last SEVEN away league matches against Wolves.
- Callum Wilson has scored in both of Newcastle United’s away EPL games this season – no player has ever scored in each of the Magpies’ first three games on the road in the competition previously.
Team News:
- Steve Bruce is hopeful that Karl Darlow, who has impressed in the absence of Martin Dubravka, will be available following a groin injury, or third choice keeper Mark Gillespie will have to deputise.
- Miguel Almiron is back in contention after missing out last weekend due to his late return from international duty.
- Bruce hopes Hayden will at least be available for the matchday squad. The midfielder is expected to train normally on the eve of the game. Fabian Schar may have to cover in defensive midfield.
- Sean Longstaff should be available after recovering from tonsillitis. His brother, Matty, will continue building towards match fitness with the U23s.
Key Facts:
- SEVEN of the 10 EPL matches between these two have ended as draws, including each of the last THREE.
- Both teams have scored in each of the 10 EPL meetings between Wolves and Newcastle – the most played fixture in the competition in which neither side has kept a clean sheet.
Analysis
My first pick is just over double-your-money. This exact bet has landed in FOUR of the last FIVE meetings between these two at Molineux and I fancy it to happen again here. Newcastle have managed to, admittedly with a bit of fortune, score in both of their away games so far this season.
Wolves have kept a clean sheet in SEVEN of their last NINE appearances so it may seem a strange pick, however when you consider that both teams have scored in every Premier League meeting between the two sides, it’s an excellent price. So BTTS at 11/10 (Unibet) goes into my play book.
Wolves do struggle to break teams down and often find themselves sitting on a 1-0 lead, I think that may be the case for a part of the game, but with Callum Wilson in hot form on the road, supported by the likes of Allan Saint-Maximin and the potential return of Miguel Almiron, I like the chances of both teams finding the back of the net.
My second pick is for Nuno’s men to get 16 or more shots on the Newcastle goal. If there’s one criticism of the Magpies so far, it’s that they’re far happy to let their opponents have an attempt. In fact, no team conceded more shots on goal per game than Steve Bruce’s side (currently allowing 19 shots per game when playing away from home this season.
Wolves to have 16+ shots is 13/10 on Betfair which is a cracking price. SkyBet has priced Wolves up at 11/10 to have 17+ shots so with this pick, you’ll find yourself needing a shot less but with bigger returns. With the stats in mind, as well as the likelihood of Newcastle being very defensive, this is a strong pick for me.
Best Bets
Wolves vs Newcastle – Both Teams to Score (11/10 Unibet)
Wolves vs Newcastle – Wolves to have 16+ shots (13/10 Betfair)
