LAZIO face Atalanta on Wednesday night in Serie A. Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.
Lazio vs Atalanta| Wednesday 30th September 2020, 19:45 | Premier Sports
When I was handed this game, it was described as a “humdinger” – I’ve searched long and hard and I cannot find a better word for it! I am excited…
Lazio come into this mouthwatering clash with just two defeats in their last 20 home Serie A matches, winning 14 games last season when having home advantage and scoring 46 goals in the process; Ciro Immobile contribtued 19 of those on his way to beating Cristiano Ronaldo to the coveted Capocannoniere and an impressive total haul of 36 goals.
Given those numbers, it comes as no surprise to find that 63% (13 games) of Le Aquile home league fixtures in 2019/20 covered the Over 2.5 Goals line with seven going on to see four or more goals.
This fixture produced a thriller last term as the sides shared 30 shots and six goals with the visitors racing in to a 3-0 half-time lead before three goals in the final 20 minutes including a pair of Immobile penalties ensured the points were shared.
The reverse fixture in June was nearly a carbon copy as Lazio were two up inside 12 minutes only to concede goals to Robin Gosens, Ruslan Malinovsky and an 80th minute Jose Polomino bullet header from a corner in falling to a 3-2 defeat.
Atalanta were the Serie A entertainers last term, which in itself was a tough award to win given the nature of the league, losing just once on their travels (W11-D7-L1) scoring seven twice in wins at Torino and Lecce as they amassed a league high 47 goals, 68% (13 games) crossing the Over 2.5 line and seeing both teams scoring in 74% (14) of their away fixtures.
You can probably see where this one is going and no it’s not 0-0!
Both sides got off to winning starts, Simone Inzaghi’s hosts with a comfortable 2-0 win at Cagliari with the aforementioned Immobile off the mark for the season, stretching his Serie A scoring streak to six consecutive matches, while La Dea picked up where they left off, scoring four and conceding two in picking up all three points at Torino.
The betting angles
Using Bet 365’s Bet Builder we can add Over 2 Goals in the match to Both Teams To Score making odds of 8/11 which may be good enough for you however looking at the match official Fabio Maresca I think we can add some spice.
Maresca has a lifetime average of 4.92 cards per-game in Serie A but last season saw a higher average of 5.50, including five reds. He has also carded at least two players from each side in 10 of his last 12 league appointments.
In the same fixture last season Lazio won the card count 5-2 and it was two yellows apiece in the return in Bergamo – in fact the last 12 head-to-heads have all seen over one card for each team. So, Over 2 Goals, Both Teams To Score, Over 1 Card for Lazio and Over 1 Card for Atalanta gives us a nice price of 15/8.
As already mentioned, Lazio were awarded and scored two penalties in this fixture last season, two in an incredible league season total of 18 – and part of the reason Immobile topped those goalscoring charts was that he took 15 of them successfully converting 14.
Maresca has a career Serie A record of 0.37 penalties per-Serie A game and 0.39 per-game in last season’s competition – he has also awarded Lazio four spot kicks from the 13 of their games he has officiated.
With those stats I think it’s worth taking a chance on Lazio to score a penalty at odds of 9/2 with Unibet – however, if BetVictor do offer odds for an Immobile goal from a penalty, I would be very interested in playing it.
Best Bets
Lazio v Atalanta – Over 2 Goals, Both Teams To Score and Both Teams Over 1 Card (15/8 Bet365)
Lazio v Atalanta – Lazio to score a penalty (9/2 Unibet)
