CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Thursday night's showdown between Southampton and Brighton in the Premier League.
Southampton vs Brighton | Thursday 16th July 2020, 20:15 | BT Sport
The Saints take on the Seagulls under the floodlights at St. Mary’s. Southampton are more than safe meanwhile Brighton are more than likely going to avoid the drop, however three points here for the visitors will guarantee it.
Southampton have been in excellent form since the restart. Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men have lost just once in their last five and they have faced teams such as Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal in quick succession.
Their win over Manchester City was arguably the highlight of their season and it’s testament to the job that their manager has carried out. Since their 9-0 hammering at the hands of Leicester City, Hasenhüttl has steadied the ship and coached them out of a potential implosion and in turn his side find themselves in midtable.
Brighton have been extremely underwhelming since the turn of 2020, registering just two wins from the 15 games they’ve played in the Premier League.
Graham Potter’s side know that they are more than likely going to be playing top flight football next season. They will however want to ensure that themselves rather than relying on the teams below them to drop points. If they can find a way to win at St. Mary’s they will do just that.
Key stats
Southampton:
- Commit on average 10.8 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 10.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in just 1/8 home games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have seen at least 1 card in 8/8 home games against sides in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/8 occasions.
- Have scored in 6/8 home games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have scored 2+ in 3/8 home games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have conceded in 7/8 home games against sides in the bottom half but have only conceded 2+ goals in 2/8 games.
Brighton:
- Commit on average 10.5 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 7.9 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in just 2/8 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have seen at least 1 card in 8/8 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 3/8 occasions.
- Have scored in 6/8 away games against sides in the bottom half but have scored 2+ in just 2/8 games.
- Have conceded in 5/8 away games against sides in the bottom half but have conceded 2+ goals in just 3/8.
Key facts:
- Have seen under 3 goals land in 4/5 of their most recent head-to-heads in the Premier League.
- Southampton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Brighton (W2/D3).
- Brighton have won just two of their 21 midweek Premier League matches.
- Southampton have won four of their six midweek Premier League matches this season.
Analysis
Everything points to a tight and low scoring game between these two down on the south coast. Recent form, head-to-heads and seasonal averages all suggest the same outcome.
I think the Saints will be the most likely to come away with a victory, but due to the fact neither side are high scorers, I think the unders is the way to go here.
Southampton star Danny Ings is the leagues fourth top goal scorer and although he scored in seven of his first 11 home league matches this season, he has slotted in just one of his last six at St. Mary’s.
Both teams have seen a card in all of their respective home and away games against sides in the lower half. But they both rarely see more than that; combined they have seen 2+ cards in just 3/16 games (18.75%).
Under 2.5 Goals has landed in 4/5 of their recent head-to-head games in the Premier League and given the recent form of both sides, I’d be surprised if it didn’t land again.
Given Southampton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Brighton, combined with their form since the restart, I’m siding with Southampton Double Chance and under 3.5 cards.
Andre Marriner is the referee and his average cards per game in the Premier League this season is a lowly 2.43 per game.
Best Bets
Southampton vs Brighton – Both Teams Over 0 Cards, Under 3 Goals (8/5 Bet365)
Southampton vs Brighton – Southampton Double Chance and Under 3.5 Cards (6/5 Bet365)
