CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from the continental action on Wednesday night.
Young Boys vs Thun | Wednesday 8th July 2020, 17:15
The Super League has a midweek derby as second place Young Boys welcome eighth place FC Thun to the Stade de Suisse.
With just eight games left to play this season, the side from Bern are currently looking to win their 14th league title. They currently sit just two points behind leaders St. Gallen and a win will see them jump to the top of the table with St. Gallen not playing until Thursday.
It’s a completely different story for the visitors, however. Thun currently sit just three points off of automatic relegation and a single point off of a relegation playoff place.
If being in such a dire situation wasn’t bad enough, they now have to play away to a side who boasts the strongest home record in the league. They must try and accomplish a task that no other team has been able to do at the Stade de Suisse this season, win.
Key stats
Young Boys:
- Have scored at least 2 goals in 29 of their last 35 home matches in the Super League.
- Have won their last 10 home matches.
- Have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home matches.
- Over 2.5 Goals has landed in Young Boys last three home games.
Thun:
- There have been Over 2.5 Goals scored in nine of their last 11 away games.
- Have conceded at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 away matches in the Super League.
- Have lost six of their last 7 away matches.
- Have been losing at both half time and full time in their last three away matches.
Key facts:
- Young Boys have seen Over 2.5 Goals in their last 10 home matches against Thun in all competitions.
- Young Boys have won nine of their last 10 home matches against Thun in all competitions.
- Young boys have scored before half time in their last 5 home games.
Analysis
As previously mentioned, Young Boys have scored at least three goals in their last 10 home matches against Thun and it’s hard to see anything but a continuation of that statistic.
Thun have won just three times in 14 attempts away from home this season, but two of those did come against sides in the top half of the table. It’s an incredibly tough task but with relegation a very real possibility, they have to try and get a positive result.
Unfortunately for the Oberlanders, I expect Young Boys to inflict further damage on the visitors and notch a few goals, strolling to victory at a canter.
I’ll be taking Young Boys in the HT/FT market at 21/20 (Coral) plus Young Boys to score Over 2 Goals at 11/10 (Bet365).
Getafe vs Villarreal | Wednesday 8th July 2020, 19:30 | La Liga TV
Is there anything more synonymous at the moment than Getafe and a yellow card? No team in Europe has been shown more cards than Los Azulones.
Getafe consistently break up any momentum an opposing team builds by constantly committing tactical fouls and so yellow cards in abundance come with the territory. It’s largely due to this style that they find themselves in European spot and just seven points off of a Champions League place.
Villarreal will be looking to channel their inner Liverpool and put in a performance that will see them put a seven point gap between themselves and today’s opponents. They’ll feel confident given the fact they have scored in 3/3 away games against teams currently in the top six.
Key stats
Getafe:
- Commit on average 18 fouls per game when playing at home (most in the league).
- Receive on average 12.2 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 7/7 home games against sides in the top half this season.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 4/7 home games against sides in the top half.
- In those games they have conceded in 6/7.
- Have failed to score in all three home games against sides currently in the top six.
- They have conceded in all three games at home against the top six.
Villarreal:
- Commit on average 13.9 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 10.5 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 6/7 away games against sides currently in the top half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 4/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 6/7 away games against sides currently in the top half.
- Have also conceded in 6/7 away games to sides currently in the top half.
- Have scored in 3/3 away games to sides currently in the top six.
- Have also conceded in 3/3 away games to sides currently in the top six.
Key facts:
- Getafe have lost just one of their last seven home games in La Liga – a 3-0 defeat to Sevilla.
- Villarreal have won their last 3 away games without conceding a goal – two of which were against sides in the bottom half.
- Getafe are the most ill-disciplined side in major European leagues with 120 yellow cards in 34 league games.
- Referee Estrada is also the most card happy based on his average cards per game average. He has awarded an astonishing 117 yellows in just 18 appearances.
Analysis
It’s a huge game in the race for a European Spot and it has all the ingredients for a card-fest. Javier Estrada is the referee for this one and he has shown a ridiculous amount of cards this season. The fact that he just so happens to be the man overseeing a game featuring the most carded side in Europe is exciting itself, from a cards perspective.
Both these sides know that a loss will leave them with a lot of work to do to seal a spot in one of the elite competitions next season.
Getafe have seen a first half card in 6/7 home games against sides in the top half this season and given the referee, I definitely think that’ll happen here with what’s at stake. They’ve also seen 3+ cards in 6/7 of those game and so those two selections will be a part of my two favourite picks here.
Villarreal have scored in 6/7 away games against sides in the top half this season but they’ve found the back of the net in 3/3 away games against sides who currently sit in the top six.
I’d advise looking at Getafe to collect Over 0 first-half Cards and Getafe to pick up Over 1 second-half cards at 13/10 (Bet365), plus Getafe Over 2 Cards and Villarreal to score Over 0 Goals at 5/4 (Bet365).
Genoa vs Napoli | Wednesday 8th July 2020, 18:30 | Premier Sports
Genoa will have been at home last night watching on as their relegation rivals Lecce managed an emphatic win over title chasing Lazio at the Stadio Via del Mare. They will be hoping for a similar outcome as they welcome Gennaro Gattuso and his Napoli side.
Genoa are still looking to claim their first win since the restart after seeing two wins and two draws. Both points they picked up were away as they lost both their home games by an aggregate score line of 7-1. They possess the third worst home record in the division and welcome a side who’ve lost just four of 15 away games this season.
Roma face off at home to Parma in a game they are expected to win and AC Milan came from 2-0 down to overcome Juventus last night. With Napoli fighting it out with both Roma and AC Milan for a place in next seasons Europa League, they need to win to remain firmly in the hunt.
Key stats
Genoa:
- Commit on average 16.7 fouls per game when playing at home (most in the league).
- Receive on average 13.7 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 7/7 home games against sides currently in the top half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 6/7 home games against sides currently in the top half.
- Have also conceded in 6/7 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Napoli:
- Commit on average 11.9 fouls per game when playing away (least in the league).
- Receive on average 14.8 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 7/7 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 6/7 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have conceded in 6/7 away games against sides in the bottom half.
Key facts:
- Napoli defender Kalidou Koulibaly ranks top for Napoli away from home in terms of tackles and clearances per game – he is out of this one through suspension.
- Napoli are unbeaten against Genoa in Serie A since 2012 (W10 D5).
- Genoa have lost their last three home games and have conceded at least three goals in each of them.
- Davide Nicola is yet win a game against Napoli as a manager (four defeats in four meetings).
Analysis
This match could be one of the games of the night as Genoa look to stop the rot against a side who they’ve not beaten in 15 attempts. The Griffins have lost their last three games on home soil and have conceded at least three in each of those. Two of those opponents were Lazio and Juventus so they can be forgiven for not achieving a better result. On the bright side, they have managed to score in all of those games.
Koulibaly is going to be a big miss for Gennaro Gattuso’s visitors. His presence, his ability to organise the defence and clear any danger is integral.
Genoa have scored in all four home games against sides they’ve faced in the top six this season and due to the fact Koulibaly will be absent, I think it will be a lot tougher for the visitors than the bookies are suggesting with their prices.
Napoli should still have too much quality for a side battling relegation and will more than likely pick them off on the counter as Genoa desperately try and claim three points.
Best Bets
Young Boys vs Thun – Young Boys/Young Boys (21/20 Coral)
Young Boys vs Thun – Young Boys to score Over 2 Goals (11/10 Bet365)
Getafe vs Villarreal – Getafe Over 0 First-Half Cards and Getafe Over 1 Second-Half Cards (13/10 Bet365)
Getafe vs Villarreal – Getafe Over 2 Cards and Villarreal to score Over 0 Goals (5/4 Bet365)
Genoa vs Napoli – Napoli to win, Genoa most cards and Napoli most corners (3/1 William Hill)
Genoa vs Napoli – Napoli Over 4 Corners and Genoa Over 0 Cards in Each Half (13/10 Bet365)
