CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Tuesday night's showdown between Watford and Norwich in the Premier League.
Watford vs Norwich | Tuesday 7th July 2020, 18:00 | Sky Sports
Vicarage Road plays host to a relegation match-up on Tuesday evening. With Aston Villa and Bournemouth facing -off against Liverpool and Spurs respectively, Watford know a win here against rock-bottom Norwich could potentially see the Hornets go four points clear of the drop zone.
Watford have had a miserable return to post-lockdown football, gaining just one point out of a possible 12. Meanwhile, Norwich have fared even worse, losing all four games since the restart without scoring a single goal.
It looks likely to be a tight affair with few chances being created, let alone finished, as these sides have scored in fewer games than any other teams this season.
Watford:
- Commit on average 13.1 fouls per game when playing at home (most in the league).
- Receive on average 9.3 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 5/7 home games against teams in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on just 3/7 occasions.
- Have seen 10 yellows (5 in each) in both home games against the other sides in the relegation zone.
- Have scored in just 3/7 home games against sides in the bottom half.
- In those games they have conceded on 4/7 occasions.
Norwich:
- Commit on average 9.8 fouls per game when playing away (third least).
- Receive on average 11.8 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in just 3/8 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/8 occasions.
- Have scored in just 2/8 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have conceded in 5/8 of those games.
Key facts
- These two have failed to score in more games this season than any other Premier League side – Norwich have failed to score in a league high 11 away games.
- Both sides have lost their last three league matches.
- Norwich have failed to score in their last five league games and have scored just once in their last seven away games.
- Teemu Pukki is Norwich’s top scorer this season. But he hasn’t found the back of the net in over 10 hours of playing time.
Analysis
Combined these two have seen an average of 0.40 first-half goals this season when playing home and away respectively, whilst as previously mentioned, both have failed to score in more games than any other side this campaign. With this in mind, I fancy it to be goalless at half-time and I think 7/4 (Bet365) is a generous price.
Norwich are third for most dribbles when playing away but are also third for being dispossessed. With Watford also committing the most fouls per-game on average when playing at home, I expect Watford to rack up the fouls.
In their last three head-to-heads, Watford have been awarded 2+ cards in every single encounter. The Hornets have seen more cards and commit more fouls at home than they do away and combined with the fact that Anthony Taylor is in charge, I fancy the Hornets to pick up a couple in this one too – Watford to collect Over 1.5 Cards is 5/6 (Bet365.
Best Bets
Watford vs Norwich – Under 1 First-Half Goal (7/4 Bet365)
Watford vs Norwich – Watford Over 1 Card (5/6 Bet365)
