CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Saturday's showdown between Leicester and Crystal Palace in the Premier League.
Leicester vs Crystal Palace | Saturday 4th July 2020, 15:00 Sky Sports
It’s been a tough return to action for Leicester who are winless since the Premier League resumed. Brendan Rodgers’ side had, not for the first time, been a surprise package domestically as they punched above their weight and looked like challenging Manchester City for second place.
This was largely due to the Foxes’ eight-game winning streak between October and December. However, it looks as though Leicester will be limping their way to a Champions League place as they have secured just 13 points from 12 games since the turn of the New Year.
Crystal Palace haven’t fared too much better and have only picked up one more victory than this weekend’s opponents in 2020. They have however managed to chalk up a win since the restart, beating strugglers Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium.
These two previously met back in November when Leicester came out as victors thanks to goals from star men Caglar Soyuncu and Jamie Vardy.
Key Facts
Leicester:
- Commit on average 10.3 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 11.8 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in just 3/9 games at home to teams currently in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/9 occasions.
- Have found the net in 7/9 home games against teams in the bottom half.
- In those games they have conceded on 5/9 occasions.
- Have conceded 2+ goals at home to a side in the bottom half just once this season (against Southampton.
Crystal Palace:
- Commit on average 10.8 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 11.9 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 4/8 games away to sides in the top half this season.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/8 occasions.
- Have scored in 4/8 away games against teams in the top half this season.
- In those games they have conceded on 7/8 occasions.
- Have conceded 2+ goals in 5/8 games away to teams in the top half this season.
Analysis
In the previous match between these two at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace didn’t see too much of the ball and despite registering 12 shots on goal, they failed to hit the target. It’s an all too familiar theme for Roy Hodgson’s men as his side remain the only team left in the Premier League who’ve failed to score more than twice in any league game this season.
For Leicester, all motivation is on cementing their place in a Champions League spot. At the turn of the year they were in second place with a 14-point cushion between themselves and fifth. Now third, the gap between them and fifth is just three points.
Palace face on average 16.1 shots per-game when playing away– second to only Aston Villa. With so much at stake for the home side the impetus is on Leicester to obtain a positive result. In this exact fixture last season, despite losing 4-1, Leicester registered a colossal 27 shots and so I think there’s value to be had on the home side getting at least 16 shots away at 11/8 (Bet365).
Jonathan Moss is the referee for this and in terms of fouls awarded per game he is at the low end. I can see this being an open game with Leicester seeing the lion’s share of possession and creating a host of chances. Only Liverpool see fewer cards at home per game than Leicester and I think that trend continues here.
Best Bets
Leicester vs Crystal Palace – Leicester City Over 15.5 Shots (11/8 Bet365)
Leicester vs Crystal Palace – Leicester to score Over 1.5 Goals and receive Under 3 Cards (5/4 Bet365)
