CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Tuesday night's action across the continent.
Spal vs Cagliari | Tuesday 23rd June 2020, 18:30
Two of the poorest teams form-wise go head-to-head in the renaissance city of Ferrara, as Spal welcome Cagliari to the Stadio Comunale.
Luigi Di Biagio’s hosts look a doomed side as they currently sit second bottom, seven points adrift from safety and possess the second worst home record in the division. Despite this, Spal actually won their last game before the lockdown (a 1-0 win away to Europa League=chasing Parma) and stopped a streak of five straight defeats.
Cagliari made their post-lockdown return away to Verona on Saturday and fell to a 2-1 defeat meaning they are winless on the road since November 2019. Conceding goals is the main problem for the Isolani; they have scored in all but two away games, only failing to find the net against Juventus and Genoa.
Although Cagliari are playing on just two days rest they should be confident of picking up their first away win in 2020.
Key stats
SPAL:
- Commit on average 14.2 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 13.9 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 4/5 home games against teams in the bottom half of the table.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 3/5 occasions.
- XG at home is 16.11 but have only scored 11.
- XGA at home is 19.69 but have conceded 20.
- Have scored in 3/5 home games against teams in the bottom half.
- Have conceded in 5/5 home games against teams in the bottom half.
- Have only won 4 games at home this season with all victories coming against sides in the bottom half.
- Have not won when playing at home to sides in the bottom half this season (lost 4, drawn one).
Cagliari:
- Commit on average 15.2 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 10.5 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 3+ cards in 6/6 away games against teams in the bottom half of the table.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/6 occasions.
- Referee Rosario Abisso has overseen two Cagliari games this season. Both games saw them pick up 3 yellows.
- Abisso also awarded a first-half card in both of those games.
- XG away is 13.16 and have scored 17.
- XGA away is 23.01 and have conceded 19.
- Have scored in 5/6 games away to sides in the bottom half.
- Have not won away to a side in the bottom half this season.
Analysis
Rosario Abisso hands out an average of 5.38 cards per-game this season and I imagine that number will have increased by the time he blows the final whistle on this fixture.
The home side currently sit third in the disciplinary table and see an average of 2.75 cards at home. Cagliari meanwhile see an average of 3.08 when playing away.
Abisso has also been in charge of two Cagliari games this season and both fixtures saw Walter Zenga’s men awarded three yellows and at least one yellow in the first half. With this is in mind, I think the ref is going be extremely busy and we’ll see a lot of names going into his book.
Spal have failed to win two league games back-to-back since April 2019, have not drawn in their last 13 and have lost their last five at home. Because of this, and the fact their defending has been questionable throughout the season, I expect there to be goals.
Cagliari have scored in all but two of their away matches in Serie A this season and in 5/6 away games to sides in the bottom half. With Spal being so suspect at the back and conceding in 5/5 home games when playing sides in the bottom half, you can bet that Cagliari will get on the scoresheet.
I’ve two wagers for this showdown; Both Teams Over 1 Card and Cagliari to score Over 0 Goals at 5/6 (Bet365), plus Both Teams Over 1 Card, Over 1 Goal and Cagliari Over 0 First-Half Cards at 11/8 (Bet365).
Genoa vs Parma | Tuesday 23rd June 2020, 18:30
Europa League -chasing Parma make the relatively short trip to the region of Liguria as they look to strengthen their position in the top half.
Roberto D'Aversa’s men currently sit just three points away from the European qualification and will fancy their chances considering they demolished Genoa 5-1 in the reverse fixture earlier in the campaign.
Parma’s return to action saw them come away with a draw against out-of-form Torino on Saturday and they were extremely lucky to do so as the hosts had eight shots on-target and missed an array of golden opportunities to score.
No team concedes more shots on average per game (21.4) when playing away than Parma and they’ll need to improve on this if they are to climb the table.
The oldest team in Italy are in serious danger of dropping out of the top-flight and only have their goal difference to thank for currently keeping them just outside the bottom three.
Genoa have picked up just 25 points from 26 games this season – the lowest they’ve collected in any Serie A season. They did however win three of their last four games before lockdown and it will be interesting to see how the break has affected their momentum
Key stats
Genoa:
- Commit on average 16.5 fouls per game when playing at home (most in the league).
- Receive on average 14.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 4/4 home games against teams in the top half of the table.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 4/4 occasions.
- In home games against teams in the top half, there have been 5 cards or more in 3/4 matches.
- Home XG of 16.77 but have scored 14.
- Home XGA of 16.63 but have conceded 18.
- Have scored in 3/4 home games against teams in the top half.
- Have conceded in 3/4 home games against teams in the top half.
- Have only won 4 games at home this season with all victories coming against sides in the bottom half.
- Have lost 4/5 home games to teams in the top half this season.
Parma:
- Commit on average 13.9 fouls per game when playing away (most in the league).
- Receive on average 11.6 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 6/6 away games against teams in the bottom half of the table.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/6 occasions.
- In Parma’s games away to sides in the bottom half there have been 4 cards or more in 4/6.
- Away XG of 10.39 and have scored 16.
- Away XGA of 23.36 and have conceded 20.
- Have scored in 5/6 games away to sides in the bottom half.
- Have lost one, drawn three and won two away to sides in the bottom half.
Analysis
Parma have won three of their last 10 league games against Genoa and have only lost once when playing away to a side in the bottom half. They are however playing on just two days rest against a side who will do whatever they can to avenge their 5-1 thrashing earlier on in the season.
I wouldn’t expect another high-scoring game but I do think there will be quite a few cards in this one. Genoa are the second worst disciplined side in the division and have been awarded the second most cards at home. Meanwhile, Parma have seen at least two cards in every away game to a side in the bottom half and I think that trend continues here.
Piero Giacomelli awards an average of 4.27 cards in Serie A this season and he may be left with no choice but to brandish a high number. He’s also awarded six penalties in 11 games, around 55%.
With Parma conceding more shots than any other team when playing away and Genoa struggling to avoid fouling players in dangerous areas, I think a penalty to be awarded is good value at 2/1 (Bet365). I’ll also be taking Both Teams Over 1 Card and Parma to score Over 0 Goals (7/4 Bet365).
Real Valladolid vs Getafe | Tuesday 23rd June 2020, 18:30 | La Liga TV
It’s been a mixed start for the hosts since La Liga resumed, winning one, drawing one and losing one. Valladolid won 2-1 away to relegation-fodder Leganes in their first game back and since then they’ve drawn to Celta at home and lost away to Atletico.
The hosts currently sit seven points from the relegation zone but this is largely due to their superior away form. At home, Sergio González’ side have amassed just 17 points from 14 games and possess the lowest Expected Goals (xG) output at home in the entire league.
Getafe are currently enduring a phenomenal season, sitting in a Europa League spot just four points off of a Champions League space at the time of writing. Nevertheless, they’ve also experienced a difficult resumption to La Liga, drawing at home to Espanyol and Eibar respectively and losing away to Granada.
Since the start of 2020, Getafe have won three of their five league away games – as many as they had won in their previous 14 combined. They also got the better of the hosts in the reverse fixture earlier on in the campaign coming out 2-0 winners and will hope they can do the double over Valladolid for the first time.
Key stats
Real Valladolid:
- Commit on average 12.9 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 14.6 fouls per game when playing at home (third most).
- Have seen 2+ cards in 4/8 home games against teams in the top half of the table.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 8/8 occasions.
- In home games against teams in the top half, there have been 5 cards or more in 4/8 matches.
- Home XG of 14.57 (lowest in the league) and have scored 14.
- Home XGA of 16.90 but have only conceded 13.
- Have conceded in 6/8 home games against teams in the top half.
- Have won just 3 games at home all season – all of those coming against sides below them in the table.
Getafe:
- Commit on average 19.9 fouls per game when playing away (most in the league).
- Receive on average 13.6 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 5/6 away games against teams in the bottom half of the table.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/6 occasions.
- In Getafe’s games away to sides in the bottom half there have been 5 cards or more in 6/6.
- Away XG of 15.80 and have scored 17.
- Away XGA of 17.34 but have conceded 14.
- Have scored in 6/6 games away to sides in the bottom half.
- Have won 4/6 away games to teams in the bottom half.
Analysis
I’m looking forward to this one simply due to the fact that it has all the necessary ingredients for a fiery encounter. Getafe in their away games against sides in the bottom half have seen at least two cards in 5/6, have scored in 6/6 and have seen at least five match cards in 6/6.
When Valladolid have faced sides in the top four of the disciplinary table at home, both sides have seen 2+ cards in 2/2, the away side has scored in 2/2 and there have been five yellows in 2/2.
With both teams still having much to play for, I expect it to be a boisterous affair and I think referee Cesar Soto is going to have a busy night. I’ll be taking Both Teams Over 1 Card and Getafe to score Over 0 Goals (11/8 Bet365), as well as Getafe Over 1 Card, Getafe Over 1 First-Half Card and Getafe Double Chance (6/5 Bet365).
Best Bets
Spal vs Cagliari – Both Teams Over 1 Card, Cagliari to score Over 0 Goals (5/6 Bet365)
Spal vs Cagliari – Both Teams Over 1 Card, Over 1 Goal, Cagliari Over 0 First-Half Cards (11/8 Bet365)
Genoa vs Parma – Both Teams Over 1 Card, Parma to score Over 0 Goals (7/4 Bet365)
Genoa vs Parma – A penalty to be awarded (2/1 Bet365)
Real Valladolid vs Getafe – Both Teams Over 1 Card and Getafe to score Over 0 Goals (11/8 Bet365)
Real Valladolid vs Getafe – Getafe Over 1 Card, Getafe Over 1 First-Half Card, Getafe Double Chance (6/5 Bet365)
