LA LIGA continues its resumption on Monday with Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) sharing his research on Real Betis's match-up with Granada.
Real Betis vs Granada | Monday 15th June 2020, 21:00 | La Liga TV
The La Liga fixtures come thick and fast. It’s the perfect chance for Real Betis to bounce back from a disappointing defeat in the Seville derby.
They were outplayed by their city rivals, Sevilla, on Thursday night falling to a 2-0 defeat mounting the pressure on Rubi. And, his team selection will have done him no favours either with Joaquin coming off the bench giving them some much-needed inspiration going forward.
It’s just one win in eight, albeit against Real Madrid, but things could be looking ominous for Rubi given some of the players at his disposal.
Granada came from behind to beat Getafe in a tempestuous clash on Friday to extend their run to five games unbeaten. But, the behind closed doors feel didn’t stop the challenges flying in and the theatrics.
It was a game that saw 10 yellow cards, six going to Granada who have Yangel Herrera suspended, which will force Diego Martinez into at least one switch.
Rubi reliant on home form
Seven of Betis’ eight league wins this season have come at home and it’s their form here that’s allowing them to be in a mid-table position.
Betis hope games have averaged 3.43 goals per game with them only recording one clean sheet in 14 – a 3-0 win over Real Sociedad. And, it’s fair to say that they are somewhat a Jekyll and Hyde side, with which Betis will turn up and perform.
They could buy some time for the under-fire Rubi with three points here and Granada, although above them in the table, could be the perfect side to play.
The visitors sit in mid-table and have only recorded three away wins this term. After a promising start on the road, they lost eight in a row, failing to score in six. So, Nazaríes may be unable to capitalise on any Betis mistakes at the back.
The evens on the hosts could look big come kick-off given Granada’s away woes. And, it’s worth factoring in that only Barca (45) have scored more home goals than Betis (27 – joint second-most in La Liga).
Back the goals to flow
Betis need to bounce back and put in a strong showing, while Granada have a distant hope of a European spot, however slim. But these two sides are vulnerable at the back and that should see plenty of goal-scoring chances.
Los Verdiblancos’ home games have seen 48 goals in total, while Granada’s away have seen 41, which are two high totals.
We’ve got two sides here who do like to pull the trigger with a combined average of around 21 shots per game. With those sorts of figures, this game should see plenty of chances, especially with the porous defences.
Part of me is expecting Diego Martínez to allow his players to take the shackles off. He was full of praise following Friday’s win and seeing his side surpass the 40-point mark, which might allow them to play with more freedom and take the game to Betis.
Twelve of the 14 league games here at Estadio Benito Villamarin have gone over 2.5 goals and with some odds-against knocking around that looks well worth taking given the leaky defences on show.
Shaky from set-pieces
I’ll start by saying this is a bit of a flyer but it was hard not to notice how ropey some of Betis’ defending was from set pieces in the Seville derby. That saw Fernando profit at the back post from Lucas Ocampos’ gorgeous flick.
Granada have scored seven goals from set-pieces, while Betis have conceded seven goals from set-pieces according to the WhoScored data. So, I’ve had a look at some of the visiting players to score.
Domingos Duarte and Germán Sánchez started as the centre-back pairing against Getafe, and despite them both bagging two goals each this season for the Nazaríes, there is some difference in price.
Duarte is best price 13/1 to score with Paddy Power and Betfair, while Sánchez is 22/1 with Unibet. I’m surprised by those prices considering it’s the latter who has recorded more shots and a higher number of shots on target.
The 33-year-old is 29/20 for one shot and 17/4 for a shot on target with Ladbrokes, which look worth having on-board with Betis’ wobbly backline, but the 22/1 is something I’ll have a small play on.
Finding a cards angle
I was looking into the limited cards markets available when I saw that Granada have committed the second-most fouls in La Liga, while Real Betis have suffered the most.
As mentioned at the start, Granada picked up six yellows against Getafe taking their seasonal yellows to 85 – the fourth-highest tally.
Betis are expected to dominate the ball given their average of 55% possession, which should see them draw the fouls meaning a busy night for referee Cesar Soto Grado.
He’s shown 90 yellows and one red in 17 games in all competitions. Interestingly, his two biggest totals both involve Granada away games.
Eight cautions in Granada’s 3-2 Copa Del Rey win at Badajoz where the top-flight side got five cards. And, the other was a total of 10 cards as Nazaríes went down 1-0 seeing them pick up six cards.
Granada most booking points is 23/20 on William Hill and that looks good considering it’s odds-on elsewhere. At the time of writing, that’s the angle to go with because team news will play a large part for player cards. The quick turnaround makes it difficult to assess the changes both managers might make.
With the visitors liking to press in the middle third then Maxime Gonalons is one man to look out for. Yan Brice Eteki could come in to partner him with Herrera suspended and is another to note – he completed two tackles in half an hour on Friday when coming off the bench.
Best Bets
Real Betis v Granada – Over 2.5 Goals (21/20 BetVictor)
Real Betis v Granada – German Sanchez to score anytime (22/1 Unibet)
