DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday's 3pm Premier League coupon.
Burnley v Bournemouth | Saturday 22nd February 2020, 15:00
We are almost at the point of the season where I take a teams ‘need’ in to greater consideration, but we are not quite there yet. Were we at that stage then I may be able to make a case for Bournemouth to win this encounter given that they are in a relegation fight while Burnley are surely only a few points from guaranteeing safety.
However, given that I really don’t see Burnley’s performances dropping at all until Premier League football is guaranteed for another season, I think the Clarets are excellent value to win this encounter at 6/5 with Betfred.
Striker Chris Wood may well miss out, but he left the field after 22 minutes against Southampton last week and Sean Dyche’s men were still able to overcome their hosts, having six shots on target to their opponents two in a 2-1 victory. A trip to St Mary’s is surely a far tougher task than a home outing with Bournemouth and even if Wood is unavailable, I think Matej Vydra and Jay Rodriguez have enough ability to cause the Dorset side problems.
Eddie Howe’s side may have won two of their last three league matches but both of those were at home to fellow struggles and neither were particularly convincing. They scored three goals from just three shots on target against Brighton, with their opponents having 21 shots (with eight on target) while they also conceded 17 shots in their 2-1 victory at home to Aston Villa.
Burnley have won five of their eight home games against sides outside of the top seven, while Bournemouth have lost nine of their 13 matches on their travels this term.
Southampton v Aston Villa | Saturday 22nd February 2020, 15:00
Backing a side with just three home victories from 13 matches is not something I would usually look to do but given that they are facing a side with just two away wins from the same number of games, I will make an allowance.
I couldn’t, however, make a case for The Saints outright when they are as short as 4/6, however, at 2/1 on a home victory and both sides finding the net, I am happy to back the Hampshire side.
BTTS has landed in 17 of Southampton’s 26 matches this season and 18 of Aston Villa’s so I think that goals are on the agenda. Villa have scored in five of their 13 defeats this season, suggesting that the 2/1 with Bet365 is decent value.
Such a bet has also landed in two of The Saints last seven home matches and given that they came against sides of similar ability to Villa – Norwich and Watford – I think this is good value. Both of those victories came by a scoreline of two goals to one and given that Villa have also lost in this manner on three occasions on the road this season, I am also going to take the 8/1 – also with Bet365 – on a 2-1 victory for the home side.
Best Bets
Burnley v Bournemouth – Burnley to win (6/5 Betfred)
Southampton v Aston Villa – Southampton to win 2-1 (8/1 Bet365)
