DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday's 3pm Premier League coupon.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace | Saturday 18th January 2020, 15:00
Last year Crystal Palace managed an improbable victory away to Manchester City but I struggle to see them repeating the feat this weekend. I do, however, think that there are plenty of reasons to believe that The Eagles will keep within sight despite City scoring 13 goals in their last three matches.
Palace have conceded just 24 goals in their 22 games this season and while the expected goals statistics suggest that they should have conceded a few more, I am reassured by the fact that Roy Hodgson’s side have only allowed more than two goals on a single occasion this season.
City’s attacking prowess is unrivalled this term, with The Citizens having scored 62 goals in 22 league games this term – 12 more than any other side – and I don’t doubt that were this game live there would be times I would be watching from behind the sofa.
However, a City victory and Under 3.5 Goals has landed in five of their last seven league games and at 6/4 with Boylesports I think there is plenty of value in that becoming six of eight.
As a saver, I also like City to win 3-1 at 14/1 with Bet365. I have written regularly about how frequently this scoreline has occurred under Pep Guardiola – 10 times in the 60 Premier League games since the start of last season for example – and this is always worth keeping on your side.
If you put 85% on your stake on City and under 3.5 goals and 15% on a 3-1 scoreline, you are still getting above Evens on either landing and against a side as solid as Crystal Palace, I think this is the way to play it.
Southampton v Wolves | Saturday 18th January 2020, 15:00
Ralph Hasenhuttl has always struck me as quite a positive chap but I don’t envisage that he was foreseeing the kind of run Southampton are on when he walked off the St Mary’s pitch at the end of October having watched his side lose 9-0 at home to Leicester. They got their revenge against The Foxes last weekend but it is their overall record since then that will have given The Austrian most pride.
The Saints have secured 20 points from the 12 games they’ve played since then and the odds here suggest that these sides are pretty evenly matched. The underlying data bears this out but despite the home sides impressive recent record it is the away side I am siding with.
I have heard many a punter say that Wolves are a side that they would always prefer to back not to lose rather to actually win and that is the angle I am taking this weekend, siding with the away side in the Draw No Bet market at 5/4 with Unibet. I can see why many would simply fancy the draw given that Wolves have drawn 10 of their 22 league games but I generally prefer to keep it as an insurance.
While Southampton’s recent record is fairly impressive, they have lost six of their 11 home games this season, winning just three, while Wolves have won three (including away to Manchester City) and drawn five of their 11 matches on the road. I believe that they are actually better suited to playing away from home given the pace they possess on the counter attack and do fancy them to score here.
The West Midlands side have conceded more than a single goal in just four of their last 17 league games and with that in mind, I think Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are the value. I couldn’t put anyone off from backing the 1-1 correct scoreline given that it has landed in eight of Wolves’s 22 top flight games this term but I will keep it simple and just back them Draw No Bet at 5/4.
Best Bets
Manchester City v Crystal Palace – Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals (6/4 Boylesports)
Manchester City v Crystal Palace – Manchester City to win 3-1 (14/1 Bet365)
Southampton v Wolves – Wolves Draw No Bet (5/4 Unibet)
