NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 15 action.
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday 16th December 2018, 18:00
Despite their 5-8 record, the Detroit Lions still have a (very) slim chance of making the play-offs. They’ll need a lot of results to go their way, but they must first take care of business against a Buffalo Bills side led by Josh Allen, who has rushed for 335 yards over the last three weeks.
Detroit come into this match as underdogs, which surprises me, given that the Bills offer nothing in the way of a passing offence and their lead running back LeShaun McCoy is plagued from a hamstring injury and is a game-day decision.
Detroit are best priced at 6/5 on Betfair for a win, and a tasty looking handicap line is the Lions -2.5 at 9/4 on William Hill, which is what I recommend backing this week.
Matthew Stafford was held to his season low of 101 yards passing last week, but Detroit still managed to come away with a 17-3 lead, and I see this game being somewhat similar.
Buffalo have a very rigid defence but it’s by no means the toughest Stafford will have faced in his career. Their main weapon at the moment is Josh Allen’s movement with the ball and ability to run, but aside from that they’ve shown themselves to be very one dimensional in the absence of Shady McCoy.
If Detroit’s defensive front can force Allen to start throwing the ball then I anticipate a lot of turnovers, and the more chances Stafford is given the more points Detroit will win by.
My preferred value bet from this game is Detroit -2.5, but if you want some even money action, Stafford’s favourite target, Kenny Golladay, is 10/11 on SkyBet to have more than 4.5 receptions. He’s achieved that feat on six occasions this season, but more looks should be coming his way due to a lack of competition.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears | Sunday 16th December 2018, 18:00
I must back this every other week now, whether I write it up or not, because it is consistently overpriced – Davante Adams to score a touchdown at anytime (11/10 Unibet).
Adams has now scored a TD in 10 of his 13 matches this season as he continues to showcase his efficiency with Aaron Rodgers throwing at him. He’s best priced at 11/10 onUnibet to score against Chicago this week and I can’t find a reason strong enough to deter me from that price.
Chicago have a very stout rushing defence, allowing only four rushing TD’s all year long and ranking second in yards per-game. If they perform as expected and bottle up running back Aaron Jones, then Rodgers will be forced to throw (which isn’t exactly a bad thing) and he’ll continue to give his favourite receiver more looks than most.
Adams continued his good form again last week, bringing in seven catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. He now ranks sixth this season for receptions, eighth for receiving yards and tied first for receiving touchdowns. While some may credit those accomplishments to the quarterback throwing at him, there is no doubt in my mind that he is an elite, top five receiver in the NFL.
There’s not much else to add that I haven’t already said in previous weeks, you won’t find a better bet across any game each week than Adams to score anytime, in my opinion. If you ever see him even money or better, then the defence he is facing is irrelevant – he’s good value.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers | Sunday 16th December 2018, 21:05
The second hottest team in the entire league right now, the Seattle Seahawks (W4) travel to San Francisco this week for a rematch of Week 13’s thrashing where the 49ers were bested 43-16.
The Seahawks can clinch the fifth/sixth seed in the NFC playoffs by beating the 49ers this week and I would expect no less.
In their last five, they’ve scored 27 points or more in four of them, and average 26.2 points per-game across the season. San Francisco have allowed 27 or more in four of their last five, as well and are averaging 26.9 points per-game allowed across the season.
Recent history is all in the Seahawks favour – they’ve won the last 10 match-ups against their NFC West rivals, and a win on Sunday would mean they’ve swept the 49ers in five consecutive years.
The Seahawks are currently best priced at 5/4 on Sky Bet to score Over 26.5 Points. Given the run of form they’re on, and the opportunity to clinch a play-off berth, I’m confident Russell Wilson will run an efficient and powerful offence in Santa Clara and come away with a win and a scoreboard showing at least 30.
Best Bets
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills – Detroit Lions -2.5 handicap (9/4 William Hill)
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills – Kenny Golladay Over 4.5 Receptions (10/11 Sky Bet)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears – Davante Adams to score a touchdown at anytime (11/10 Unibet)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers -Seattle Seahawks to score Over 26.5 Points (5/4 Sky Bet)
