NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 14 action.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Sunday 9th December 2018, 18:00
After losing out to the Arizona Cardinals last week despite being 13.5-point favourites, the Green Bay Packers have (finally) parted ways with head coach Mike McCarthy. Hate him or rate him, he’s been blessed with two HoF QB’s in his tenure but only managed one Super Bowl appearance – his dismissal was coming.
A new head coach in the middle of the season is always going to be risky, it could rejuvenate the side or simply make things worse. But one constant that has remained is the Atlanta Falcons pass defence, and no matter who is calling the plays from the side, you can expect Aaron Rodgers to connect with his number one receiver – Davante Adams.
Adams is best priced at just under even-money (10/11) with Sky Bet to score a touchdown at anytime, and 6/1 to score a brace. He has been as close to a sure thing as you can get this season, although, unfortunately, the other time I tipped him to score (Week 11 at Seattle) he let me down – his only scoreless game in the last five weeks.
This year he has 85 receptions for 1115 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That’s an average of seven catches for 92 yards per-game, scoring in 0.91 of them. There aren’t too many better receivers with a better stat line this year.
Atlanta has the 25th ranked passing defence this year, allowing over two passing touchdowns per-game and 264 yards, on average.
Adams to score anytime is extremely good value at 10/11, and I expect him to deliver.
Looking at the same game, I’m also very keenly following the points market – I anticipate it’ll be a high-scoring affair.
In the two games in Rodgers’ career when he’s lost as a double-digit favourite, he’s bounced back with a win. With all due respect to Arizona, the home defeat to the Cardinals will have left Green Bay extremely embarrassed, and they will be looking to prove a point.
Nothing more needs said on the injury-ridden Falcons defence – they just aren’t very good – and with the talent that the Green Bay offense possess’ they should be efficient and relentless.
The over/under line has been backed from 48.5 to 50.5 in the past few days, but I still see it going even higher. Over 58.5 points is where you start getting better odds than 2/1 for your money (best priced 11/5 on Paddy Power).
It will be a game for both QBs to show their worth and they have plenty of talent around them to make highlight-reel plays happen. I imagine defence in this game will be obsolete.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Sunday 9th December 2018, 21:05
Another wide receiver touchdown tip here, apologies if you were hoping for something more exciting.
Courtland Sutton is now primed to be the Broncos number one receiver this week following a season ending injury to his counterpart, Emmanuel Sanders.
Sutton had his best outing of the season last week, 85 yards and a score, and while those numbers may not jump off this page, it’s worth noting that he started the season third on the depth chart and has slowly worked his way up – impressing the Broncos head office enough to trade away long-time fan favourite – Demaryius Thomas.
He’s averaging 19.9 yards per-catch this year and will be good value to improve on that in the last four games. With the Broncos undergoing a resurgence as of late and making a push for the play-offs, Sutton will be relied upon to bring the ball down in red zone passing opportunities.
His rivals for catches – DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick – only have nine receptions between them all season long.
San Francisco have a low-end defence, and while they rank 13th in passing yards allowed per-game (241), they are dead last in interceptions (two) and touchdowns allowed (27).
Denver have two very winnable games following this matchup with the 49ers (v Cleveland and at Oakland), so a win here to continue their three-game winning streak and sustain their momentum would be huge. Their run game is stellar, but they will need to balance the offense out to ensure they don’t burn out.
Sutton is their best bet to get the passing game open. He is best priced at 11/8 on Ladbrokes, and 17/2 on Sky Bet for two or more.
Best Bets
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers – Davante Adams to score a touchdown at anytime (10/11 Sky Bet)
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers – Over 58.5 Points (11/5 Paddy Power)
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers – Courtland Sutton to score two or more touchdowns (17/2 Sky Bet)
