SNOOKER specialist George Weyham (@GWSnookerTips) shares a couple of fancies from Tuesday's China Championship action.
Jack Lisowski v Scott Donaldson | Wednesday 26th September 2018, 07:30
Scott Donaldson – as written in a recent after tournament review – is one of the most consistent players on tour. He had a terrific win in Round 1 of the China Championship, defeating Stephen Maguire, 5-2.
Considering Donaldson has won 12 of his 15 matches this season, his aggregate frames won and loss record reads 59-40. It shows he wins regularly but does so whilst also frequently losing frames.
In 15 matches, his lowest frames total won is one – a 4-1 loss against Peter Ebdon at the Paul Hunter Classic semi-final. His two other defeats read 5-4 and 4-3. The Overs on frame betting (Over 5.5 in best of 7s and Over 7.5 in best of 9s) would of landed in 11 of Donaldson's 15 matches.
I see this trend continuing versus Jack Lisowski. Lisowski is capable of blowing Donaldson away (won with six whitewashes already) but I feel Donaldson has more than enough in the locker to keep this match tight.
Donaldson is a real terrier on the table and is unlikely to make it easy for Lisowski. Donaldson will get chances – it's all about taking them (he scores very well, generally).
Lisowski opened his account with a 5-3 win over Kurt Maflin. In nine of the first 10 matches of the season, Lisowski games would of landed in the Unders category for frames, whereas six of his last 10 matches would have won for Overs backers.
I think Lisowski might tough this out in the end, but by a predicted scoreline of 5-3 or 5-4. The 3/1 the match goes to a deciding frame (SkyBet) isn't a bad shout, either considering Donaldson has been involved in eight deciders already this season.
Neil Robertson v Graeme Dott | Wednesday 26thSeptember 2018, 12:30
Graeme Dott is one of the most unfashionable former world champions, but he's not lost his incredible tenacity for winning snooker matches. As tough opponents go, Dott would be towards the top of many ex and current players’ lists
He showed his never-say-die attitude when defeating Stuart Carrington on Tuesday, 5-4 (was 59-0 down in the decider and won 60-59) on the black.
For a player not notorious for big breaks, Dott’s scored well in his opening wins so far in Guangzhou, hitting 117, 64 and 57 in win one and 79,75 and 53 in win two.
His opponent on Wednesday lunchtime is one of the heaviest scorers, Neil Robertson. He compiled century number 18 for the season in defeating Gerard Greene, 5-2.
In head-to-heads in ranking events, Robertson leads 8-5. Only in two of those losses was Dott uncompetitive.
This match has the makings of a close game like Lisowski and Donaldson. Like Donaldson, Dott never knows when he's beaten – he's a tremendous competitor. Even when he's behind, he has the great mental strength to keep hanging in there and battling for every ball.
Dott knows he can't compete with Robertson's scoring power, but in other areas, Dott definitely can compete.
I would of priced Dott no bigger than 2/1 for this contest, so I'm surprised he's priced virtually 13/5 with Marathon. I wouldn't advise backing Robertson so short at 1/3. If Robertson is off his game fractionally, Dott can pounce.
Robertson has 13 wins so far this season (two losses – Ronnie O'Sullivan and Ricky Walden) but he hasn't overly convinced, even though he won in Latvia. Seven of his 13 wins were gained by one or two frame winning margins. Again, 3/1 for a decider is decent value.
Dott, invariably, gives you a good run for your money. Back the Pocket Dynamo here at 13/5 plus the overs frames double.
Best Bets
Jack Lisowski v Scott Donaldson – Over 7.5 Frames
Neil Robertson v Graeme Dott – Over 7.5 Frames
Back the Over 7.5 Frames double (16/5 Betfair)
Neil Robertson v Graeme Dott – Graeme Dott to win (13/5 Marathon)
