Norway v Northern Ireland: Back a Green and White Army stalemate for a tough away trip

Our man Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) believes there's value looking at Northern Ireland in Sunday night's UEFA World Cup qualifying action.

Norway vs Northern Ireland | Sunday 8th October 2017, 19:45 | Sky Sports

Norway’s record of 16 goals in their nine qualifying matches may sound impressive but it does need a little bit of context; 12 of those goals came against San Marino; Across the other seven games they have found the net just four times and they consisted of two penalties, an own goal and an 87^th minute consolation in a 2-1 defeat to the Czech Republic.

This coupled with Northern Ireland’s defensive prowess means that it is unsurprising that Marathon Bet’s 61/100 is the best price you can get on under 2.5 goals.

Whilst I believe this to be a more than fair price, there are a couple of other bets at bigger prices that I like the look of.

The first is a 0-0 scoreline at 13/2 with William Hill. Not only have Northern Ireland yet to concede a goal to anyone other than Germany in this campaign but they have also struggled to find the net away from Windsor Park. Aside from the 2-0 defeat in Hanover, their results have consisted of a 0-0 draw in the Czech Republic, a 1-0 win over Azerbaijan and a 3-0 victory over San Marino.

It is worth noting that they did not score the winner in Baku until the 92^nd minute and the game against the Group C’s minnows was also goal-less after 70 minutes. The difference between those two encounters and this one is that Northern Ireland needed to win them. On this occasion, they know that a draw guarantees a playoff spot.

In theory, Norway can still finish between third and fifth but given the quality of opposition that their rivals are facing, the fourth place feels like a nigh-on certainty so, in reality, they have little more than national pride to play for.

Obviously, neither side will want to end on a defeat so if there is an early goal I think there would be a genuine desire for the opponent to get back into the game so I would also recommend a safe play and back the draw at 11/5 with Bet365. 0-0 feels the most likely result to me but it’s always good to have an insurance!