CORRECT SCORE specialist Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) is back with more juicy picks this weekend from the Premier League.
Liverpool v Sunderland | Saturday 15:00
There are two basic pieces of advice I would pass on to any punter; 1) Always make sure you are getting the best price in the market and 2) Do not believe what you read in the papers.
Pundits and journalists have seemed to suggest that David Moyes is beginning to turn things round at Sunderland when the reality is that they have been extremely fortunate to win their last two games.
A 2-1 victory away at Bournemouth and a 3-0 win at home to Hull may sound very impressive but they simply cannot continue to win games in which they are so comprehensively outplayed.
Across those two games they have had just 18 shots to their opponents 39, four corners to their opponents 20 and far less possession than either adversary. Put simply, any side needing their goalkeeper to make seven saves against Hull is going to be in serious trouble.
On Saturday, they face a Liverpool side who create more chances than any other side in the Premier League and concede the least!
This promises to be a very tough afternoon for the Mackems and to be honest I was tempted to back Jurgen Klopp’s men to put four or five past Jordan Pickford.
Upon reflection, however, the odds look a little skinny so I will take a more conservative approach. A 3-0 home win is 7/1 with Bet365 and 3-1 victory is 11/1 with the same firm.
There may be bigger prices on the exchange on Saturday afternoon but at the time of writing they are the best available.
Swansea v Crystal Palace | Saturday 15:00
Boy do I love Seamus Coleman. The diminutive Irishman scored with just a minute to go to prevent this bet from realising after this column chose to leave it for one week only!
I think Palace will win this game. They have better players than Swansea and from what I have witnessed, a better manager.
The volume of changes Bob Bradley has made game-to-game would seriously concern me if I was a Swans fan and they must simply be hoping that there are three worse sides.
Having said all that, since Gylfi Sigurdsson arrived, average odds of 14/1 (for home games) would see you in profit had you backed the Sigurdsson to score first and Swansea to win 1-0 scorecast.
BetVictor are currently offering 40/1 so it is impossible to turn it down!
Arsenal v Bournemouth | Sunday 14:15 | Sky Sports 1
Make no mistake, this is a tough game for an Arsenal side who were slightly fortunate to get a point in the Champions League against PSG in the week and incredibly lucky to claim a draw against Manchester United last weekend.
The 4-0 defeat to Manchester City aside, Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth have been competitive in every game they have faced this season and managed a very impressive win at Stoke last weekend.
That said, the Cherries have already failed to score away to West Ham and Middlesbrough and I don’t see them getting too many opportunities at The Emirates on Sunday.
I do not foresee a vintage Arsenal performance, but both games between these two sides finished 2-0 to the Gunners last season and at 8/1 with Betfair, I shall be backing a third.
Additionally, since the start of the 2013/14 season, Arsenal have secured 10 victories by this scoreline at home, suggesting that the correct odds should be around 11/2.
Whilst I wouldn’t put the more cautious among you off from backing the 2-1 score line at 17/2 with the same site I will stick with the more comfortable margin of victory.
Manchester United v West Ham | Sunday 16:30
Once again, I am relying on the Jose Mourinho of old coming to the fore.
During his last spell as Chelsea managed, his side managed to win by a 2-0 scoreline (7/1 BetVictor) on 10 occasions, suggesting that the correct odds should be around 7/2.
You can currently get double that price for United to win by that margin on Sunday. That, to me, is ridiculous and given that it is available with more than one bookmaker, you may be able to get a better price with Betfair on the day of the game.
Much has been made of United drawing their last three home games but the truth is that they should have comfortably won all three of them. They have had 73 efforts on goal to their opponents 13 and a side of their quality will not continue to convert chances at such a low rate.
West Ham have been very poor this season and deservedly find themselves just a point above the relegation zone. It’s very difficult to make a case for them getting anything at Old Trafford and I certainly won’t be making one!
Best Bets
Liverpool v Sunderland – Liverpool 3-0 Sunderland (7/1 Bet365)
Liverpool v Sunderland – Liverpool 3-1 Sunderland (11/1 Bet365)
Swansea v Crystal Palace – Gyfil Sigurdsson to score first and Swansea to win 1-0 (40/1 BetVictor)
Arsenal v Bournemouth – Arsenal 2-0 Bournemouth (8/1 Betfair)
Manchester United v West Ham – Manchester United 2-0 West Ham (7/1 BetVictor)
