IT'S Men's Quarter-Final day at Wimbledon. Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) is backing a big-price double.
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic | Wednesday 13:00 | BBC
Two big servers take each other on here first up on number one court. This will be the pairs fourth meeting with Querrey leading the head-to- head 2-1 having beaten Raonic 6-3 7-6 in Paris and 6-7 7-6 7-6 6-4 here at Wimbledon in 2012, with the Canadian winning 6-4 6-2 in San Jose in 2013.
As a sporting event this won't be the greatest watch but there looks to be a plethora of value about. Whenever two big servers take each other on grass the first port of call is the tie-break market and I was quite astounded to see odds against available on a 1st set tie-break.
Querrey is holding serve 93% of the time on grass this year and Raonic 95%. If we plug those hold serve %'s in we're looking at odds of 4/5 on a tie-break so 11/8 looks generous.
Last time they met here there were just three breaks of serve in 46 games, and it took until the 19th game before the first break. With these figures I make Raonic's chances of winning the 1st set 7-6 about right but I've got Querrey around a 11/4 chance, so the 9/2 available looks worth adding in what essentially is a coin-flip if we reach a tie-break.
Given the inevitable long sets and the likelihood of just one or two points deciding them, it makes sense that neither player wins 3-0 which looks a decent 8/13 chance.
And we can boost that to 7/8 by backing the match time to be over 140.5 minutes and at the same time still cover three long sets. Querrey's sets are averaging 38 minutes and Raonic's 40 minutes, which suggests around 156 minutes if at least four sets are played. Last time here their four set match lasted 188 minutes.
Looking at their stats so far, Querrey has won 85% of his 1st serve points and Raonic 82%. Sam's winner:unforced ratio is a healthy 66%, with Milos 69%.
Querrey has converted break point opportunities 34% of the time with Raonic 28%, and the American has saved break points 73% with the Canadian 81%.
Between them the pair have hit 198 aces and there really isn't much to choose between them. Overall you've got to give Raonic the edge, but as much as a 3/10 shot? Not for me, when Querrey has beaten him here before and holds the lead in their head-to- head.
I was impressed to see him follow up his win over Djokovic by defeating Mahut in straights while Raonic may have some fatigue after a five set battle with Goffin. Four years ago Querrey was 2/1, so a unit bigger looks value to me.
Roger Federer v Marin Cilic | Wednesday 13:00 | BBC
This isn't one with tonnes of numbers of stats to support it but given Federer's year, I think he's worth taking on here. It's been a stop-start season for the Swiss maestro having missed four months of the tour with niggling injuries, including a knee operation and more recently a bad back meaning he missed the French Open which ended a run of 65 consecutive appearances at Grand Slam tournaments.
His return to the grass courts began in Stuttgart where he lost from a set up to Dominic Thiem as a 3/10 shot, although perhaps understandable after a month out. However, in Halle, a tournament he's previously won eight times, he lost to Alexander Zverev when 2/9.
These defeats compounded his year having also lost at odds of 1/2, 4/11 and 2/7. He's yet to drop a set here, although his draw has been a breeze, despite facing Nottingham champion Steve Johnson, whom I don't particularly rate and has played an awful lot of tennis the last month.
So Federer is yet to be tested, and I'm not sure it's great preparation given the form of Cilic. He cruised past an albeit injured Nishikori, and his serve and forehand are looking great at the moment.
He's bombed down 76 aces (Federer just 38 in-comparison) and is first in the tournament for 1st serve points won, winning a huge 90%. This will be their sixth meeting and first on grass, and they're 1-1 at slams, both at the US Open, including their last match in the 2014 semi where Cilic prevailed 6-3 6-4 6-4.
Federer's serve has contributed a lot in his Wimbledon runs over the last few years and given the issues with his back and results on grass in the build-up, I think he's worth taking on at the prices.
Best Bets
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic – 1st Set Tie Break (11/8 Coral)
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic – Sam Querrey to win 1st Set 7-6 (9/2 Coral)
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic – Over 140.5 Minutes (7/8 888 Sport)
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic – Sam Querrey to win (31/10 Boylesports)
Roger Federer v Marin Cilic – Marin Cilic to win (7/2 Marathon)
