FOUR winning games out of five for Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) so far in Euro 2016. Here he focuses on Ireland's clash with Sweden.
Republic Of Ireland v Sweden | Monday 17:00 | BBC One
The Republic of Ireland are still awaiting a first competitive victory against Sweden as the sides meet in their opening UEFA EURO 2016 Group E game. Ireland's record in ten matches against Sweden is W3 D2 L5 (W0 D2 L4 in competitive fixtures).
The teams were in the same qualifying group for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Sweden came from behind to win 2-1 in Dublin, with goals from Johan Elmander and Anders Svensson, after drawing 0-0 in Solna, yet neither country made it to Brazil.
One of my favourite referees is in charge of this one. “Mad” Milorad Mazic can be a bit of a clown and indeed was voted as the worst referee at the 2014 World Cup! He averaged 4.67 cards per game in the qualification phase.
Ireland averaged 2.33 cards per game in the qualifiers and Sweden 2.0. The Swedes committed more fouls (182) than any side which has qualified for these finals.
This referee doesn't normally mess about. Some referees are lenient (Eriksson today for example) and others are fussy. Mazic is definitely the latter.
Both teams have solid enough stats and with “Mad Mazic” at the helm, I'm backing over 45pts at 5/4 with William Hill.
Best Bets
Republic Of Ireland v Sweden – Over 45 Bookings Points (5/4 William Hill)
