BACK by popular demand our man in Rome Marco Di Cosmo (@scioltz) gives us his best bets in Italy this Sunday.
Frosinone v Fiorentina | Sunday 14:00
Fiorentina are not in the best of form just now and their injury time surrender to Verona last week will have hurt them and damaged their confidence.
This match gives them another huge chance to cut their deficit to third place as they face Frosinone. Since Roma and Inter settled for a draw on Saturday, the Viola have the chance to bring themselves closer to Roma, who are now six points ahead.
We’ve often praised the home record of Frosinone and we often backed this team against rivals of their size, but it gets difficult they face top clubs.
Despite their brilliant home record, Frosinone have lost at home against every team in the Top 6 (they haven't played against Inter yet, but lost away to them 4-0). I cannot imagine something different against Fiorentina here but I prefer backing goals as both teams will surely play for a win.
Napoli v Genoa | Sunday 17:00 | BT Sport Extra
Napoli will play against Genoa a couple of hours after Juventus' derby against Turin, hoping to get back to first place after their recent downturn.
I cannot imagine any different result other than a home win for Napoli. This team is back to the entertaining football we’ve seen for most of their season and they really seem to enjoy their games when playing like this.
At home they have a tremendous record of 11 wins, three draws and zero losses, that's the best in the whole Serie A. You cannot imagine Genoa running riot here: they are almost safe with an eight point advantage from Frosinone and they just registered an important home win against Torino.
Their top striker Leonardo Pavoletti is just back from injury and probably not at the best of his form. Napoli have an average of more than two goals scored in every home match and I’m expecting them at least to maintain this trend.
Milan v Lazio | Sunday 19:45 | BT Sport Europe
Lazio’s suicide against Sparta Praga was ridiculous given their expectations of that match. The biancocelesti could just settle for a draw against a team clearly under their level, instead they’ve been thrashed away 3-0 and sent out from the Europa League. That match sums up all the negativity of their season, and I’m expecting things not to get better against Milan on Sunday evening.
If their defending was awful against Sparta Praga, the duo of Mauricio and Wesley Hoedt could be embarrassing against Carlos Bacca, who’s not scored in the last four games and is desperate to break this negative trend.
Lazio have turned their awful away record into something admirable in recent months. They had two wins and five draws in their last seven matches and are unbeaten since December.
Considering the chaos in which this club is, and the probable dismissal of their coach Maurizio Pioli, I expect them to come back to their usual away form, when they started the season with six losses in seven away games.
Best Bets
Frosinone v Fiorentina – Fiorentina to score Over 1.5 Goals (3/4 William Hill)
Napoli v Genoa – Napoli to win and Over 2.5 Goals (4/5 Paddy Power)
Napoli v Genoa – Gonzalo Higuain to score anytime (8/11 William Hill)
Milan v Lazio – Milan to win (21/20 Betfair Sportsbook)
