AN easy Saturday night winner for Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) and now he's back with two selections this Sunday.
Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano | Sunday 15:00 | Sky Sports 2
Ok, I want to start off by saying please don't go mad with this selection as Rayo Vallecano have conceded five goals in each of their past two visits to the Santiago Bernabeu. The hosts are 1/10 to win the game so something similar could occur again. However, this is a Madrid derby and Real haven't been in the best of form as demonstrated by the loss at Villarreal last week.
The referee in this one is a favourite of mine, Ignacio Villanueva. He averages 7.2 cards per game and 62% of those are given to the away team (in this case Rayo Vallecano).
Interestingly, despite a few thrashings, Rayo have collected four or more cards in 5/6 recent meetings. They average three cards per game this season and I wouldn't be surprised to see them reduced to 10 men in this local affair as they've already picked up three reds so far this season.
What we do know is that this referee, Senor Moonpig as I call him, won't bottle big decisions. With a preference for punishing the away team I think he could do similar here.
The huge caveat is that Real Madrid could kill this game quickly but, statistically, over three cards for Rayo Vallecano at 11/8 with William Hill is worthy of a small stake.
Sampdoria v Palermo | Sunday 17:00
14th placed Palermo travel to 16th placed Sampdoria in what promises to be a relegation battle in Genoa. The Scilians are Italy's second dirtiest team averaging 2.81 cards per game. The hosts average 2.61. That implies 5.42 cards could be expected. The two clashes between these two teams last year had six and seven cards in them.
The whisteblower in this one is Michael Fabbri. He can be a frustrating official who lets offences go unpunished. However, he still averages 4.67 cards per game.
He has refereed both teams already this season. He dished out five when Palermo won at Bologna and he also waved seven when Sampdoria thrashed Carpi 5-2.
In truth both teams are in shocking form and this could be an ugly encounter. I think over 4.5 cards at 4/6 with Bet365 is well worth backing. William Hill are just 3/10 so this looks great value.
Best Bets
Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano – Over 3 Rayo Vallecano Cards (11/8 William Hill)
Sampdoria v Palermo – Over 4.5 Cards (4/6 Bet365)
