Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has got three bookings bets lined up for Saturday. Take a look.
Atletico Madrid v Espanyol | Saturday 17:15
Bet365 have dangled a carrot this week and I can't resist biting! Espanyol visit the Vicente Calderon Stadium to tackle Atletico Madrid. Frankly, I saw the opening line of 5.5 cards and was considering whether to recommend it or not.
The problem is the referee who is the most lenient in Spain. Iñaki Vicandi Garrido averages just 3.83 cards per game. Dreadful by Spanish standards.
However, Espanyol are Spain's dirtiest team averaging 3.5 cards per game and Atletico average 3.17. That implies a total of 6.67.
There is also a bit of history between these two teams. In the last three seasons the totals read 11-0-13. Weird!
I wasn't going to get involved but Bet365 have lowered their line to 4.5 cards. The ref is a concern but these are two teams with great potential for cards. I can't resist biting on the over 4.5 cards at 4/6.
Malaga v Granada | Saturday 19:30
No Senor Confetti this week but fear not as there are plenty of opportunities in other La Liga matches.
Indeed there's a relegation six pointer between Malaga and Granada and when you throw in that this is also a bit of a local derby and it looks promising for a cards punt.
The history in this fixture is also encouraging. The past five read 7-6-9-6-6 which represents a 100% track record on over the line this week.
This term Malaga average 2.42 cards per game and Granada 3.08 per game.
The official in charge is Javier Estrada Fernández. He has dished out six or more cards in 5/6 domestic games this season. With local bragging rights at stake and a chance to move away from the league basement, this is a vital fixture for both clubs.
Accordingly, I'm backing over 5.5 cards at 8/13 with Bet365. I know it's not a great price but it's 4/9 with William Hill so this is relative value.
AC Milan v Sampdoria | Saturday 19:45
One of my key weekend selections comes from Italy's top flight as Sampdoria tussle with Milan under the lights at San Siro. The hosts have been pretty solid this year since picking up Coach Siniša Mihajlović from opponents Samp.
There have been plenty of cards in the most recent meetings between these two teams and I expect that trend to continue here. Daniele Doveri gets the whistle for this one and he averages six cards per game. Interestingly enough, he took charge of this fixture recently in Genoa and brandished seven cards that day.
This season Milan average 2.38 cards per game and Sampdoria 2.62. That implies bang on five. With a favourable referee in charge, over 45pts with William Hill at 8/13 looks like buying money and I'm on!
Best Bets
Atletico Madrid v Espanyol – Over 4.5 Cards (4/6 Bet365)
Malaga v Granada – Over 5.5 Cards (8/13 Bet365)
AC Milan v Sampdoria – Over 45 Bookings Points (8/13 William Hill)
