OUR bookings king Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is back with three value bets this Sunday.
Sampdoria v Verona | Sunday 11:30 | BT Sport Europe
Verona travel to Genoa to take on Sampdoria in early Sunday morning action. There is a bit of history between these two teams. Last term the two encounters had nine and seven cards in them. This year Sampdoria average 2.88 cards per game and Verona 2.63. Good stats if not great.
The real justification for this tip is the relatively unknown whisteblower, Maurizio Mariani. He averages a league best 7.67 cards per game. These stats are boosted by the fact that he has booked 18 and sent off an incredible four in his past two games. He has been on fire!
Given the numbers, I like the look of over 55pts with William Hill at 13/20.
Udinese v Frosinone | Sunday 14:00
Serie A hasn't been as fruitful for us so far this season (56% win rate) as my historical data would suggest it should be.
When I analyse matches I look for a number of things: disciplinary record of the two teams, any history between the clubs and, of course, the referee in charge. Without getting too “geeky” I use this analysis to determine what I think the line should be before I actually see it.
Well this week the match that ticks the most boxes from a stats perspective is Udinese v Frosinone. Both teams average three cards per game (so six in total). The official is Italy's top referee, Nicola Rizzoli. He averages 7.67 cards per game. The over 5.5 cards offered by Bet365 looks to low to me and I'm going over at 5/6.
Atletico Madrid v Valencia | Sunday 19:30 | Sky Sports 5
No Senor Confetti this week. Rumours are abound that he actually sent himself off! Fear not though there is plenty still to target in Spain this weekend.
La Liga action comes thick and fast and I can't wait to see Atletico Madrid and Valencia do battle. The Vicente Calderon stadium in Madrid is a hostile environment and I expect that to be the case again.
As regular readers of this column will know Atletico have really picked up lately in terms of the number of cards they are collecting. They picked up five in last week's win at Real Sociedad.
This term Atletico average 3.25 cards per game. Their opponents Valencia actually beat that with 3.38. The cards in the last five encounters between these two read seven, 13, six, seven and 10. The man with the whistle in this battle is Jesus Manzano. He averages seven cards per game.
This is the game of the week in Spain and Over 6 cards at 10/11 with William Hill gets my recommendation.
Best Bets
Sampdoria v Verona – Over 55 Bookings Points (13/20 William Hill)
Udinese v Frosinone – Over 5.5 Cards (5/6 Bet365)
Atletico Madrid v Valencia – Over 6 Cards (10/11 William Hill)
