GAVIN Murphy (@GamePlanGav) is back with another card-happy selection, this time focussing on La Liga’s big Sunday clash between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid.
Sevilla v Atletico Madrid | Sunday 19.30 | Sky Sports 1
Sevilla welcome Atletico Madrid in the first big encounter in La Liga this season and it promises to be a cracker. The hosts Ramon Sanchez Pizjuán home is one of the more intimidating venues in Spain and perhaps the atmosphere has had an effect on the home team’s temperament too.
The hosts picked up the most yellow cards in La Liga when entertaining in 2014/15 whilst Sunday evening’s visitors collected the second most cards on their travels last season. It bodes well for a stab on the Overs this weekend.
Atleti boss Diego Simeone will have his troops geared up for this battle in the trenches. You watch him prowl the touchline like a caged tiger.
In the previous two corresponding fixtures in Seville between these two, 20 cards have been issued and in Europe’s hottest city, Sunday’s encounter promises to be no different with Carlos Clos Gomez being handed the whistle.
Amazingly, he has been in charge of this precise fixture for the past two seasons seasons and issued 11 and nine cards respectively during those encounters – he has form! All things considered, Over 7.5 cards (10/11 Bet365) must be the call.
I also want to bring to your attention to a pattern on late bookings, particularly in Spain. In La Liga last week, 59 cards were shown with 71% of those being dished out in the second-half. So it’s well worth keeping a close on at half-time. Generally, the line is 3.5 cards at slightly better odds. I recommend we bet the Overs, given the average of 4.2 cards were handed out after the interval on week one and the data stretches back longer than that too.
But the exception to this strategy would be when has sauntered into a three-goal lead at half-time, for example. The game would be dead and I would generally also steer clear of games involving Barcelona, especially when they’re hosting vastly inferior opposition.
Best Bets
Sevilla v Atletico Madrid – Over 7.5 cards to be shown (10/11 Bet365)
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