ANOTHER winning week for Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) last week. Who's he backing this week in The Barclays?
The Barclays | Thursday – Sunday | Sky Sports
Paul Casey bagged us a place at 35/1 with a Tied 3rd finish last week while the in-play tip Charl Schwartzl finished alongside him. I really can't explain Brandt Snedeker's performance. A 2nd round 61 saw both him and Casey start the last round in the Top 5 just two off the lead. An eventual finish of 43rd with a +5 last 18 holes was a shock. Davis Love III won after starting at 500/1. Golf is rewarding sometimes, but occasionally you simply can't account for a result like that.
We're into the closing weeks of the regular season. The FedEx Cup has its faults and I won't bore you with them but it's a wonderful way to end what has been a brilliant season.
For those unfamiliar with the format, this is the way it works. The Top 125 in the standings will start this Thursday. The Top 100 this week will progress to the Deutsche Bank in Boston, 70 then go forward to the BMW Championship in Illinois finally the Top 30 in the standings will fight out the Tour Championship down in Atlanta where the winner will collect a cool $10m.
So, this week then. Plainfield Country Club in New Jersey is our host. The second time this course has seen The Barclays. Last time out was 2011 where Dustin Johnson won a 54 hole washout. His score of -20 should really not be replicated this week.
A period of hot weather has left this Par 70 track of some 7012 Yards with rock hard greens. That normally means much lower scoring. Especially on Donald Ross designed courses (like last week) where pins are traditionally hidden away on large undulating greens. The second shot on a Ross course is normally uphill and at least partially blind.
The length and layout of this course with just a couple of Par 5s, one playing all of its 600 yards should mean that for the second week running, the big hitters do not have the advantage. That is so welcome, especially from a betting point of view, as it opens up the tournament and brings other skills into play. So much of modern golf is about power, it's always refreshing to see an event that will be decided by ball striking and the ability to plot your way around a golf course.
After the joy of a 16/1 favourite last week, we are back in Jordan Spieth land and back to 6/1 odds which you just cannot seriously consider in a field of 125 very capable starters. I'm not too delighted with the price of my main pick either but I am absolutely fine with betting double digits.
The last four starts for Justin Rose read 6th, 4th, 3rd, and a 4th, the last being in the USPGA. Justin has let me down several times this year but the guy is a winner. I think if I offered you any 12/1 shot almost guaranteed to have a chance come Sunday, you would take it. You can all but guarantee the Englishman will be there as they go out Sunday evening. I really like his chances here.
The South African players are in superb form right now and one of them is going to nail a big tournament soon. Charl Schwartzel could well be that guy. I quite fancied him last weekend and backed him each way at 25/1. Tied 3rd gave me a decent return and that was a third Top 10 in his last 10 starts. The 2011 Masters Champion is one of the best players in the world when things click and he does look like he could find that groove any day now. I love his Iron play on courses where ball striking is key and am quite prepared to invest at 50/1
The recent form of David Lingmerth reads very well. The U.S. based Swede has been quite prominent of late. Three Top 6s in 10 starts, a win at Muirfield and a 12th place at Whistling Straits is eye catching. I will get on board at 66/1. Lingmerth is one of those guys that at any stage could be four or five ahead of the field. A player for whom the Cash Out option may well be the best way to profit.
I talked earlier about Brandt Snedeker. Having napped him last time out I was buzzing after his Friday 61 took him up 101 places and delighted he started just a couple behind the 54 hole leader and in front of the eventual winner. I still can't explain that last round 75, but Snedeker has been in wonderful form recently and I can easily justify ignoring that. The value 50/1 has gone from Monday and I'm not too keen to take 40s however I am happy to get involved in Top 10 odds of 21/5.
The final pick this week goes to another guy in red hot form, Robert Streb. Three Top 10s in his last five starts is a monumental effort. There is no course form to play with but with conditions the polar opposite of what they were in 2011, you can say the same for everyone in the field. Odds of 66/1 are to my mind quite generous. I wouldn't have been surprised to see him go off at half that price and think it represents the best value of all my picks.
Best Bets
The Barclays – Justin Rose to win (12/1 Ladbrokes)
The Barclays – Charl Schwartzel each way (50/1 Bet365)
The Barclays – David Lingmerth each way (70/1 Skybet)
The Barclays – Robert Streb each way (66/1 Boylesports)
The Barclays – Brandt Snedeker Top 10 Finish (21/5 Betfred)
