ANOTHER winning week for Louis Ross (@KingLouis2105) last week. He's back with three St Jude picks here.
St Jude Classic | Thursday – Sunday | Sky Sports
With five holes to play last week, I was convinced we had 1st and 2nd. Two hours late Justin Rose lost on the 3rd extra play-off hole. Brilliant wasn't it? So dramatic. Shame we ended with 2nd and 5th but it was fantastic sport.
The FexEd St Jude's Classic at TPC Southwind is the last stop for the PGA circus before the U.S. Open (THAT will be a classic) and that does make it a fairly tricky event to read for a couple of reasons. A lot of the elite players will be using it as a work out for the big one. Using new putters, grips etc. Most will be looking to peak for Chambers Bay on the 18th.
That combined with the fact that this 7239 Yard Par 70 is an absolute brute of a course has thrown up odd results in the past. I normally look for patterns and the old ‘horses for courses' rule but none of those really seem to apply to this tournament. Ben Crane won this last year at 150/1 off the back of zero form for a couple of years. A few winners have come off the back of recent good finishes but nothing consistent. Even course form is no great pointer, Dustin Johnson won on his debut here in 2012.
DJ is favourite this week. The highest ranked player in a weak field by some distance and with that previous win here, he rightly heads the betting. 6/1 though? That's the kind of price Rory or Speith go off when they are hot. Johnson is not in that kind of form. Way too short.
First pick goes to Webb Simpson 18/1 with BetVictor. He's had had a tough time since winning his first Major a couple of years ago, mainly down to his putting. Webb is one of those players being forced to give up the long putter this year and like nearly all the others in that position, he has really struggled. Things have improved in the last month or so and a 2nd at Quail Hollow was encouraging. An in form Simpson is a class act especially here where he was 3rd last year.
Billy Horschel. I love Billy Horschel. A real character in a sport where personalities are often hidden. You always know how Billy is feeling. 6th last year, Top 10 at Memorial last week, running into form for the last few weeks. 18/1 (Paddy Power) is not huge but he's better than 95% of these.
Apologies if you already know this next bit, but sometimes there are silly things that are worth pointing out. As well as golfers having a liking for course types, they also tend to do really well on certain types of greens. More specifically they like particular types of grass. The complexes here are Champion Bermuda Grass and there are a few players in the field that thrive on it. Many others hate it and really struggle. Winning scores here are around the 12 Under mark, with eight huge Par 4s of over 450 yards.
The reason for that last bit is to explain my pick of Matt Every at 90/1 with Bet365. Yeah, I know, but this guy really putts well, particularly on this stuff. Tied for 3rd here last year, he also won on Bermuda Grass at Bay Hill in March.
It is a really tough one this week. Go easy. I really have huge confidence in a couple next week and that's one to get really excited about.
Best Bets
St Jude Classic – Webb Simpson each way (18/1 BetVictor)
St Jude Classic – Billy Horschel each way (18/1 Paddy Power)
St Jude Classic – Matt Every each way (90/1 Bet365)
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