GAVIN Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) returns for the weekend action with a smart view on a Sunday Serie A game.
Schalke v Eintracht Frankfurt | Friday 19:30 | BT Sport Europe
Friday night action in Germany catches my eye as 10th placed Schalke host 6th placed Eintracht Frankfurt. I've crunched the numbers on this one and believe there is some value to be had.
The referee in this one is Robert Hartmann. The 37 year old whisteblower averages 4.16 cards per game in the Bundesliga so far this term. In career games officiating the hosts he typically gives them 1.71 cards per game and 2.50 to Frankfurt. That suggests that 4.21 total match cards might be expected.
Five is the number
This season Schalke average 2.18 cards per game. Frankfurt are Germany's most ill disciplined outfit collecting 3.35 cards per game. These averages suggest that perhaps 5.53 cards might be anticipated. The past five head to head meetings between these two teams have seen an average of five cards given.
The bookies are generally pricing this as under or over 4.5 and that looks spot on based on the stats. Rather than backing one of those markets I like the look of 4-6 cards with William Hill. That covers all of the stats mentioned in this article as winners and at even money I'm getting involved.
Schalke v Eintracht Frankfurt – Between 4-6 Cards (Evens William Hill)