Premier League Tips | 4th March 2015

A busy night in the Premier League. He made a profit on Tuesday, but can Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) follow suit here?

QPR v Arsenal | Wednesday 19:45

I appreciate it's a subjective thing, but I always find the same teams priced too short, and others priced too big every week. Swansea and Southampton – usually always too short. Tottenham and QPR – usually always too big. Hey, just my opinion!

But QPR are gash Chris? Yeah perhaps, but I think with Harry Redknapp gone they have a chance of staying up. It's imperative they rediscover that strong Loftus Road form to make that happen though.

Arsenal visit West London tonight in their usual shape. Spirited to sit in the Top 3, but with a dark cloud hanging over the club after their shambolic defeat to Arsenal last week.

QPR are 6/1 with BetVictor to claim an unlikely win. That's still too big for me though. But let's make it clear, it would be an unlikely win. Yeah, it's not often this happens but I'm changing my mind mid-article here.

Originally I was going to back QPR +1 on the Asian Handicap as I just can't see them losing by one more goal. But then I can't see Arsenal fail to win here. These are the kind of games they grind in and get the three points. Upon further thought, I can see that happening here.

On the road to bottom half opposition, Arsenal have won their last two matches by exactly one goal. That's how I envisage this game. I'm expecting a stoic, hopeful performance from QPR, but them ultimately to fall short.

Bet365 offer a chunky, hunky 3/1 on Arsenal winning by exactly one goal. Yes please!

Liverpool v Burnley | Wednesday 20:00

Liverpool eh? There just not getting enough credit! I saw a BBC website video clip with the title, ‘Are Liverpool back on track?'. You having a giraffe Auntie? Back on track?! They've just won seven of their last nine matches, they've just suffered two 90 minute defeats in their last 26 games, they've just taken out the champions after literally stepping off a plane after a gruelling gut-wrenching dust up in Turkey. Wow!

However the bookmakers have framed this home match with Burnley as an comfortable win for Liverpool. I beg to differ. Surely, Liverpool are going to hit a wall at some point? It might just be on Wednesday. The Turkish episode on Thursday night combined with that adrenalin-packed win over Man City on Sunday will take it's toll you'd imagine.

Burnley though are not in good nick. I really feel that home loss to Swansea on Saturday might prove incredibly costly. It's a game Sean Dyche would have targeted to take something from. Their away form just doesn't stack up for him to be as confident tonight.

Just one away win in 14 matches this season doesn't bode well. Crucially for my bet though they've fired blanks in six of their 13 away league matches and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again on Wednesday.

For all of Liverpool's guts and glory, they've actually been involved in 10 Under 2.5 Goals matches in their last 14. Yup, you know where I'm going with this don't you?

What a pleasant surprise to see Under 2.5 Goals chalked up at 13/10 with BetVictor. I'm in!