BETTING expert Ben Levene (@BenLevene96) has crunched the numbers and delivered four stats-based bets for the 2018 World Cup.
Lowest Scorers
At each of the last three World Cups, a CONCACAF side has been the tournament's lowest scorers.
Panama qualified with a -1 goal difference, scoring nine goals in 10 games. They’ve failed to score in any of their last three against European nations and have scored more than the single goal in just 2/16 games outside of Panama in the last 24-months.
They are in a group with Belgium and England who cumulatively conceded nine goals in 20 qualification games.
Panama are 9/1 (SkyBet) to be the lowest scorers at this summer’s World Cup.
Most Group Goals Conceded
A nation from the AFC region has conceded the most group goals in four of the last five World Cups. This time around Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia make up the AFC contingent.
The Aussies conceded more goals in qualification than any of those sides, with 11 in 10 games. They also conceded in both legs of their play-off with Syria, and in all three group games at last summer’s Confederations Cup.
Australia have been drawn into Group C with France, Denmark, and Peru.
France have scored 16 goals in their last 7 games (2.28 per-game, Denmark scored at least three goals in four of 10 qualifiers, while they put five past Ireland in the second leg of the play-off. Meanwhile, Peru were the third-highest scoring team in CONMEBOL qualification, outscoring Argentina, Colombia, and Chile.
Australia are 12/1 (188BET) to concede the most goals in the group stage at the 2018 World Cup.
Total Red Cards
The 2014 World Cup saw just 10 red cards. However, each of the six tournaments prior had seen 16, 15, 22, 17, 28 and then 17 red cards respectively.
Over 11 red cards is 10/11 (Bet365), implying a 52% chance.
Total Penalty Shootouts
Since the format change in 1986, eight consecutive World Cups have had at least two penalty shootouts.
The total in each of those stand at 3-4-3-3-2-4-2, and most recently 4.
Over 1.5 penalty shootouts is 1/2 (Sky Bet), implying a 67% chance, yet it has landed 100% of the time in the modern format.
Best Bets
World Cup 2018 – Panama to be the lowest scorers (9/1 Sky Bet)
World Cup 2018 – Australia to concede the most group goals (12/1 188BET)
World Cup 2018 – Over 11 tournament red cards (10/11 Bet365)
World Cup 2018 – Over 1.5 penalty shootouts (1/2 Sky Bet)
