ONE of our writers Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) found two winners from three with his first leg picks – can he land a treble of fancies in Thursday’s Europa League action?
Sporting Lisbon v Atletico Madrid | Thursday 12th April 2018, 20:05 | BT Sport
Sporting Lisbon have scored in 18 consecutive home matches in all competitions and also netted 13 goals in their last five Europa League matches at Estadio Jose Alvalade, so you would expect them to score here. However, they are without Dutch international Bas Dost here who has 27 goals to his name in just 37 matches this season.
Add to this the Atletico Madrid defence which is nothing short of superlative and I am looking towards the under 2.5 goals market. 62% of Diego Simeone’s side trips in La Liga have seen less than three goals scored in them as did all three of their away Champions League matches before their untimely exit.
Another statistic that backs up my argument for a low scoring game here is that 64% of Sporting’s domestic home matches this season in have followed suit. Of course the first leg also saw less than three goals scored and for me, 61/100 is just about worthy of backing here with the usual best price bookmaker Marathon.
RB Salzburg v Lazio | Thursday 12th April 2018, 20:05 | BT Sport
Lazio have now lost just one match in 90 minutes in their last 12, including a massive 4-2 win over Salzburg in the first leg.
You would assume looking at those statistics that Lazio would be the team to back here, but they are the underdogs as Salzburg offer plenty of reasons to place a stake on them.
Die Roten Bullen are unbeaten in their last nine at home in European competition, conceding just two goals in those matches.
Their home form in general is actually somewhat astounding to be honest. They have not lost any of their 23 home games in all competitions this season and only had their defence breached nine times in the process.
They need to comeback from a 4-2 loss here in the first leg however, and have lost their last two games heading into this one, so against an in-form Lazio, who are scoring for fun, I like the odds of 11/5 on the Serie A side to be the first to defeat Salzburg on home soil this season.
Marseile v RB Leipzig | Thursday 12th April 2018, 20:05 | BT Sport
When backing something in a Marseille home game, my immediate go to on an odds comparison site is always both teams to score.
At their newly structured home, they have scored in all but two of their 24 matches. Both teams to score has landed in 11 of those and considering they need to net here to have any chance of reaching the Europa League semi-finals after a 1-0 away defeat in the first leg to Red Bull Leipzig.
Worryingly for my selection, both teams to score has not landed in the last two matches for Rudi Garcia’s side. However, at home, BTTS has landed in three of their last four.
Leipzig were seven games unbeaten before losing 4-1 at home to Leverkusen heading into this tie, but scoring goals isn’t a worry for me with the Bundesliga outfit.
They have scored in eight of their last nine games and in Europe have netted in nine of their 11 matches this season. Back both Teams To Score at 8/13 with Betfair.
Sporting Lisbon v Atletico Madrid – Under 2.5 Goals (61/100 Marathon)
Salzburg v Lazio – Lazio To Win (11/5 Marathon)
Marseille v Leipzig – Both Teams To Score (8/13 Betfair)
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