THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE continues on Wednesday night. Here Ben Levene (BenLevene96) picks out his favourite fancy from the match-up between Tottenham and Real Madrid.
Tottenham v Real Madrid | Wednesday 1st November 2017, 19:45 | BT Sport
Spurs will have been delighted with a well-earned point at the Bernabeu in this reverse fixture. A valiant display along with some brilliance from Hugo Lloris and some poor Karim Benzema finishing meant the game ended one-a-piece.
The potential absence of Harry Kane complicates things. Although Mauricio Pochettino’s side did play well without him in Saturday’s 1-0 loss at Old Trafford, one can’t help but think it may have been a different story for Spurs with their talisman up top.
There is talk that Kane will make a return this Wednesday and if he does, Spurs may well fancy themselves. Regardless, the availability of Dele Alli after a three-match suspension will be a big boost.
Real Madrid are vulnerable. They already trail Barcelona in La Liga by eight points and a loss on Sunday at the hands of newly-promoted Girona only furthered their woes.
In the league and Champions League, Zidane’s men have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five away matches. They’ve even struggled at the Bernabeu where they’ve won just three of their last seven.
However, Madrid have won seven of their eight matches on the road this season and so the 5/4 (Bet365) about them this Wednesday is tempting, especially given the nerves around Tottenham at Wembley.
The betting angles
At Wembley this season, Spurs have beaten Dortmund and Liverpool 3-1 and 4-1 respectively, so Madrid have seen what can happen if you leave yourself vulnerable to the counter.
To contrast, Spurs’ league games against Burnley, Swansea and Bournemouth have all seen Under 2.5 Goals and this correctly represents their struggles with breaking down sides who defend deep with two organised banks of four, on the massive Wembley pitch.
Over 2.5 Goals is around 1/2 and that seems too short, especially given the potential absence of Kane. Along with a bit of luck, Spurs proved in Madrid they can defend their penalty area while conceding possession and this was further evidenced in performances against Liverpool and Manchester United.
Under 2.5 Goals landed in the reverse fixture two-weeks ago but the big games involving Spurs at Wembley this season have seen this mark passed. With all things considered, it is probably worth steering clear of the goal markets.
The onus will be on Real Madrid. They’ve achieved six or more corners in each of their last five away matches while Spurs have conceded five or more corners in four of their last five games at Wembley.
Spurs will be content with soaking up pressure and Madrid will be invited on. Real Madrid to take six or more corners draws appeal at 8/11 (SkyBet).