OUR Correct Score man Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) delivers his best bets from Saturday’s Premier League action.
Burnley v West Ham | Saturday 14th October 2017, 15:00
As a rule, I don’t like backing teams with performance data as bad as Burnley’s but I will make an exception on this occasion.
Whilst I believe that 12 points from seven games flatters Sean Dyche’s side, I don’t believe they should be as big as 9/5 at home to a West Ham team who have secured just one point from four away games and have been unconvincing even in victory this campaign
.Since the start of last season, Burnley’s have won 11 of their 22 home games while West Ham have emerged victorious on just five occasions in 23 games on their travels during that same period of time.
With attacking players such as Andy Carroll, Javier Hernandez and Antonio Valencia finding goals hard to come by, I simply do not know how the Hammers could rival the Lancashire outfit for favouritism in this match.
Since their promotion back to the Premier League, regardless of the venue, Burnley’s tactics have been fairly consistent; they look to soak up pressure and hope that they can take one of the few chances they create in a game.
Clearly this has been successful to date and has led to a lot of low-scoring games, particularly at Turf Moor. For instance, all three of their home games this term have seen one goal or less so I think the 107/50 Marathon are offering on their being fewer than 1.5 goals in the game represents good value.
My preference, however, is for fhe Clarets, so I would recommend the 7/1 Bet365 are offering on a 1-0 victory for the home side. Since August 2016, five of their 22 home matches have ended in this manner and in truth this price is a spot bigger than I expected, particularly given West Ham’s travel woes.
Crystal Palace v Chelsea | Saturday 14th October 2017, 15:00
In my article prior to Crystal Palace’s game with Manchester City, I stated that I believed that Roy Hodgson would keep the Eagles in the Premier League; Indeed, despite the South London outfit losing their two subsequent matches by a combined score-line of 9-0, I still genuinely believe that Roy will keep them in this division!
That said, I believe it will get worse before it gets better. Shorn of the attacking services of Christian Benteke and Wilfried Zaha through injury and Ruben Loftus-Cheek (who is ineligible against his parent side), I struggle to see them creating chances in this game.
Much has been made of the negative records Palace have broken on their way to losing their opening seven games of the season without scoring a goal and I can’t make a case for them breaking their duck on Saturday afternoon.
Since Antonio Conte took over at Stamford Bridge his team have conceded just eight goals in 16 away matches to sides outside of the top-six and with Palace’s options in forward areas so limited, I am not surprised that Chelsea to win ‘to nil’ is as short as 5/4.
To give Eagles fans some crumb of comfort, I do believe that this will be more competitive than their games away at both Manchester clubs. Spanish star Alvaro Morata is likely to be missing for the West Londoners and it also worth noting that under Conte’s leadership Chelsea have scored more than two goals on just four occasions away from home in this division.
With this in mind, I believe that backing his side to win 1-0 and 2-0 is the way to go. Both prices are 6/1 with BetVictor, meaning that you are getting combined odds of 5/2. Given Palace’s current troubles, I believe this represents good value.