Watford v Liverpool: Unloved, bruised Watford provide May Day value

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CHRIS Graham (@chrisgraham79) previews the May Day match between Watford and Liverpool.

Watford v Liverpool | Monday 20:00|

It’s been a good weekend for Liverpool. Despite all three (four?) of their challengers for a Top 4 spot take to the field, not one of them could muster three points.

Everton are eight points behind them with just nine left to win, Arsenal have a game in hand but are six behind and face Manchester United on Sunday while the Old Trafford side have a congested fixture list and City couldn’t overtake Klopp’s side yesterday. Take a breath…

A win here for Liverpool tonight would move them up to 69 points and reignite their confidence after last week’s slip up against Crystal Palace. At 4/7 though, they make no appeal.

Rough 2017 for the Reds

It’s been well documented how Liverpool have struggled this season against sides further down the table. Their performances against the elite have been superb and they’ve taken maximum points from 7th and 8th place respectively Everton and West Brom.

Beneath those places though and it’s been far more troublesome. P20 W10 D4 L6 is their record this season but if you look at 2017 alone it’s a far poorer P8 W2 D2 L4.

Away from home this year they’ve also struggled with two wins out of seven on their travels in the Premier League. There’s certainly a bundle of evidence to stick one’s nose up at 4/7.

Watford are one side I find it really hard to give a shit about. A win on Monday and they’ll move up to 9th place in the table. A great achievement but they are not a side that quicken the pulse at all.

Their two stand out moments this season have been the home win over Manchester United in September and the out-of-nowhere victory at the Emirates on the last day of January.

Vicarage victories

They’ve won nine other games in the league this season and a victory at Vicarage here would put them on the same home points as both Manchester clubs. Respect.

Indeed, it’s their form in Hertfordshire that makes opposing them here a tough one. It’s one defeat in seven at Vicarage Road and just three defeats in 15 there since September.

A win on Monday would be a fourth straight home win and would be their best run at home in the top-flight since the mid-1980′s.

So while my affection for the club is minimal, it’s hard to take them on with confidence and surely the value lies with them at the odds.

A shameful performance last week against Hull prompted captain Troy Deeney to lambast the players and it’s possible we’ll see a reaction here.

On what we’ve seen this season it’s fair to say that the Hornets offer the best betting opportunity and I’ll back them +1 on the Asian Handicap at 24/25 with Bet365. It’s money back if they lose by exactly one goal.

Best Bets

Watford v Liverpool – Watford +1 Asian Handicap (24/25 Bet365)

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About Author

Profile photo of Chris Graham

Chris first got interested in betting back in 2000 when he began working in betting shops throughout Scotland. He has remained in the industry ever since, specialising in marketing and PR roles. Outside of betting, his interests are listening to Blur and following Queen Of The South.

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