WILL DYER (@w2Dyer) previews a proper Super Sunday for us starting with Everton hosting Manchester City. The latter have been less than impressive in recent times, can the Toffees cause an upset?
Everton v Manchester City | Sunday 13:30 | Sky Sports 1
No midweek EFL Cup semi-finals for either of these clubs means they should now be recovered from the hectic Christmas period.
Manchester City eased past West Ham in the FA Cup in what will have been nine days ago come kick-off whilst Leicester dumped Everton out early.
Pep Guardiola’s City side have not passed any significant tests for a long while now. Arguably, their last impressive performance was against Barcelona way back in early November. The 2-1 victory against Arsenal was a good result but the Gunners handed them the game in a dreadful second half display.
West Ham were abysmal last Friday and other than that, the five other victories since that 3-1 win against Barcelona have come against Burnley (twice), Hull, Watford and Crystal Palace. During that period Liverpool, Leicester and Chelsea have all beaten the Citizens and all rather comfortably.
Fernandinho is suspended still due to his third red card of the season and, unfortunately for City, Fernando has a knock so could also be absent. However, the Toffees have similar problems with their defensive midfielders. Idrissa Gueye being at the African Cup of Nations with Senegal and James McCarthy out injured.
Without these more defensive minded players in the centre of the park, we could be in for an open game. Six of Everton’s 10 home Premier League games have seen both sides score this term and the exact same is true of the Sky Blues’ away games.
That implies a 60% chance of both sides scoring here and the 7/10 with Bet365 gives us implied odds of 58%, with these players absent I think that just pushes us over into a back-able price.
However, I’ve found a new market that means we can combine both teams to score with another outcome I like in this game and that’s Everton to avoid defeat.
Ronald Koeman’s side have lost just once at Goodison Park in 10 league games this season and that required a 94th minute Merseyside derby winner from Sadio Mane, more than forgivable.
City to come unstuck
Betfair have a ‘Double Chance and Both Teams To Score’ market and ‘Home or Draw and Yes’ is priced at 21/10.
It’s a bet that would have won in the reverse fixture back in October when Everton’s defending was stellar and Romelu Lukaku made the perfect counter-attack.
City have flattered to deceive lately and I don’t like the way that Guardiola is already speaking about his future nor do I like his reactions to the press, it can’t be doing any good in the dressing room so I’m getting with the home side in what I expect will be a goal-filled affair.
Everton v Manchester City – Double Chance and Both Teams To Score: ‘Home or Draw and Yes’ – (21/10 Betfair)