NFL Sunday: Back Hill to hammer the Browns

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NFL expert Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) runs the rule over Sunday’s packed NFL action with the play-offs looming.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns | Sunday 18:00

There have been a few occasions this seasons when oddsmakers have allowed us the chance to exploit what looks an obvious error. For me personally, this one is maximum bet time and certainly this week’s NAP.

Cleveland do not defend well against the run. Cleveland do not defend well full stop. It’s one of many reasons why they remain the only winless team in the NFL.

In fact of 32 teams, only the equally woeful 49ers have a worse record against running backs. On average, the Browns give up 140.6 yards per-game on the ground.

In week 7, Jeremy Hill rushed for 168 yards on just nine carries. In the continued absence of Giovani Bernard, 32 was given the ball 23 times last week against the Eagles.

All of that explains why I am all over the Paddy Power quote of just 66.5 yards in this game.

Bet of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday 18:00

I really like the Steelers in this game. They seem to have found another gear recently on both sides of the ball.

Whilst Tyrod Taylor is throwing the ball so inconsistently, I am going to avoid backing the Bills against good teams.

There are a number of reasons why Pittsburgh look the team to be on this week. LeVeon Bell is having a monstrous campaign – his ground game is as good as ever, but he has particularly done well catching passes.

Antonio Brown has his mojo back and part of the reason both he and Big Ben are playing their best football of the year before Ladarius Green. The athletic Tight End has been a go to guy in recent weeks.

Four long balls of over 30 yards have found their way into his hands along with a couple of catches in the end zone. Six times last week Green was found by Roethlisberger for 110 yards.

The Bills don’t defend Tight Ends particularly well, ranking 14th, and Green will be a tough match up for the Buffalo linebackers.

Green will get his fair share of targets and I’m very keen on him going Over the 45.5 line with Bet365

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins | Sunday 18:00

Some of these games throw up betting opportunities but sometimes I don’t put them in because the games are incredibly difficult to write about.

In the case of this game, I could basically just write David Johnson, David Johnson, David Johnson about 50 times and that would update pretty much explain my view of what’s going to happen here.

Records are being broken every time Johnson and Akers take the field right now. Thank the Lord for that because he is the saviour of every one of my Fantasy teams. It’s play-off time in Fantasy world right now and I need a huge game from the big man. I’m pretty confident that’s what we are going to get.

Miami are almost as bad at stopping the run as Cleveland and San Francisco. A staggering 130 yards per-game is what most teams get out of the Dolphins.

Most teams don’t have a running back as good as the one they face today. Five games this season of over 150 total yards and six times he has scored at least twice.

Arizona relies on Johnson and I’m backing him in two ways here. Firstly I think he will inspire Arizona to a win and -2 (10/11 William Hill) will do for me.

Money has come big for the Cards here who opened at +1.5 but I’m also hoping my man scores more than once and going with 4/1 on Bet365 that he goes into the end zone twice or more.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday 18:00

Where has the Eagles defence gone? At least 26 points have been given up in each of their last three games and they’ve barely laid a finger on the opposition quarterback.

That does not bode well when facing one of the most underrated passers in the game. Kirk Cousins has the second best passing offence in the NFL, second only to the magnificent (drool) Drew Brees.

Averaging 309 yards per-game and with a reasonable running game, the ‘skins have been a touch unlucky this season. Not only in coming up against the all conquering Cowboys in the NFC East but also losing a few they really did not deserve to.

My focus here is on Cousins. Once again, I am going to pick on Paddy Power as I think they have got another one wrong. They have set their passing line at just 280.5.

There are not many teams that present their quarterback with targets of the quality of Jackson, Garçon, Crowder, Davies, Thompson from the backfield or returning Tight End, Jordan Reed.

Philly would need some performance to stop Cousins giving Washington yet more reason to offer him a massive contract next season. I like a Washington win and in turn a 300-yard plus game from the man under centre.

Best Bets

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns – Jeremy Hill over 66.5 Rushing Yards (5/6 Paddy Power)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills – Ladarius Green over 45.5 Receiving Yards (5/6 Bet365)

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins – Arizona Cardinals -2 (10/11 William Hill)

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins – David Johnson to score two touchdowns or more (4/1 Bet365)

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles – Washington Redskins -2 (9/10 188BET)

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles – Kirk Cousins over 280.5 Passing Yards (5/6 Paddy Power)

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I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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