GAVIN Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has spotted some Friday night value in the cards markets.
Malaga v Granada | Friday 19:45 | Sky Sports 5
The derby of eastern Andalusia takes place on Friday night as Malaga welcome Granada to La Rosaleda. These two sides have met on 81 previous occasions with Granada enjoying 30 victories compared to 27 for Malaga.
From a card perspective, the past six encounters have seen total cards issued of 4-11-9-7-8-6 at an average of 7.5 per match. However, when the match is played in Malaga the average increases to 8.67 per game.
This season, the hosts occupy 11th position in the league and have collected 43 yellow and five red cards. In short, they are one of the most ill disciplined teams in La Liga.
19th placed Granada will buoyed by their victory over high flying Sevilla last weekend. They have collected 36 yellow cards and one red so far this term.
Senor Confetti (Alfonso Izquierdo) is in charge of this fixture. He has shown cards of 3-6-10-8-6-10 at an average of 7.17 per match this season.
In career games officiating Malaga ge has typically shown them 3.69 cards per game. He generally dishes out 3.56 to the visitors from Granada. That suggests that 7.25 cards could be expected in this game.
I noticed that since 2014/15, whenever Alfonso Izquierdo officates Granada he averages an eye watering 11.75 cards per game. Over the same period games involving Malaga that he has covered average 6.4 cards.
I believe that we can reasonably expect at least seven cards in this game and so am recommending over 6.5 cards at even money on Bet365‘s Asian line.
Malaga v Granada – Over 6.5 Cards (Evens Bet365)