PLEASE welcome Correct Score punter Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) to WeLoveBetting. Here he lines up his best bets of the weekend.
Arsenal v Swansea | Saturday 15:00
Thankfully it is almost over. A fortnight without Premier League football at this stage of the season can do funny things to people. Indeed, just the other day I found myself agreeing with Chris Sutton. Horrendous scenes…
Anyway I’ll kick off with Arsenal v Swansea and it’s 2-0 and 2-1 wins for the Gunners that stick out to me. A quick check of recent history tells you that these are very popular scorelines for Arsene Wenger’s men.
Over the past three and a bit seasons of the Premier League, they have won by either 2-0 or 2-1 on 16 occasions, suggesting that combined odds of just under 11/4 would be accurate.
The fact that spreading your stakes carefully provides odds of in excess of 4/1 is therefore good news for us punters. (BetVictor have a 2-0 scoreline at 7/1 and 2-1 at 9/1).
The ‘New Manager Effect’ is one of the biggest myths in football and this is not the kind of game that Swansea new boss, Bob Bradley, will be judged on. The Swans have lost by such margins in three of their seven games already this season and I foresee a similar outcome on Saturday afternoon.
West Brom v Tottenham | Saturday 15:00
An Albion fan myself, I do my level best to avoid betting on my own club. However, the weight of history makes backing a 1-1 draw here too good an opportunity to turn down.
Both the fixtures between these two sides ended this way last season, and overall seven of their 18 Premier League matches have ended with this scoreline.
Tony Pulis’ men – I really hope I don’t have to type that too many more times – effectively ended Tottenham’s title challenge with a stalemate at White Hart Lane last April so there is no doubt that the north Londoners will have revenge on their mind when they travel to The Hawthorns this weekend.
Spurs are unbeaten so far this season and a win against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City means that they will arrive in the West Midlands full of confidence.
However, the brand of football Pulis employs does not change regardless of the opposition and as well as many creditable draws, he can also point to victories against the likes of Man United (twice), Arsenal and Chelsea in his two seasons in charge of the club. He is no respecter of reputations – or football it seems – and I believe that odds of 7/1 make good value.
Liverpool v Manchester United | Monday 20:00 | Sky Sports 1
This might surprise you but I’m backing the 0-0 scoreline here and it’s purely based on Jose Mourinho’s history. I am aware that United have not recorded such a scoreline since last December and you have to go back to October 2015, Klopp’s first game in charge, for the last time a Liverpool game was scoreless.
However, Mourinho remains the same pragmatic individual that built success at Porto, Chelsea and Inter on a tight defence. His most recent spell at Chelsea included 0-0 draws away from home against close rivals Arsenal (twice), Manchester United and Tottenham. Therefore, whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a goalfest, at at odds of 13/1 0-0 is worth consideration.