CHELTENHAM is coming! Graeme Johnston (@GraemeJ_83) is looking to beef up his bank and find some winners this Saturday.
15:30 Meydan | At The Races
The warm up to World Cup night and there are sack fulls of money on offer as you would expect. This is the only race I like from a punting perspective and I’ve found what is described as a bet to nothing in my opinion.
It’s not the strongest of Group 1 races and given the fact an all weather specialist is odds on to win a turf Group 1 tells you all you need to know. That horse is last year’s Winter Derby winner Tryster who is six from six on synthetic surfaces but only two from five on turf.
Okay, last time out he won a Group 3 race in really impressive fashion over 10 furlongs but his previous attempt on grass was awful. Granted it was in the Brigadier Gerrard Stakes and it was a good renewal but he didn’t look comfortable that day, and though he may have been over the top after the all weather season it showed he is vulnerable on turf. He has the form to win here but at odds on I’m not going to be selling any of my organs out of desperation to back him.
His main market rival here is my selection and it’s the Mike De Kock trained Ertijaal. Now he is almost the opposite of Tryster, he was experimented with on dirt last time out and that didn’t work out at all. He was sent off favourite to win a competitive handicap but he looked all at sea on the surface and is unsurprisingly returning to turf now.
Before that his last three runs had been at Group 1 or Group 2 level and he showed real consistency with two seconds and fourth. Ordinarily he would fall short at Group one level on Meydan but this is not a Group 1 in my opinion.
He should have the beating of all of his rivals here if over his exertions on dirt and if he’s in the form he was in five weeks ago he will take advantage if Tryster doesn’t run to form, which he isn’t guaranteed too. I make him an each way bet to nothing that could very well end up a winner.
15:15 Kelso – La Prezien/Meet The Legend Reverse Forecast
15:30 Meydan – Ertijaal each way (11/2 Paddy Power)
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