CHRIS Graham (@chrisgraham79) is aiming for a festive treble this week as he lets us know his best Premier League bets.
Everton v Leicester | Saturday 15:00
I thought the price on Everton last week was wrong and I feel exactly the same this weekend. While last week I thought they were too big against Norwich this time they look too skinny against Leicester.
The Toffees are best price 11/10 to win this fixture and I see no justification for those cramped odds. On 2015/16 form there’s no doubt Leicester are a better side than Everton. The Foxes lie nine positions higher and boast 12 more points than Everton.
The Leicester bubble shows no sign of bursting and they need a win here to be Christmas Number One in the Premier League. It’s 10 games unbeaten now for the Midland club and they emerged with four points in their recent games against Manchester United and Chelsea.
On Monday night they were superb against Chelsea and looked like a team fizzing with confidence. I got the impression they would fight tooth and nail to preserve this amazing run. 13/5 on a side buzzing like this looks large.
Everton frustrate me massively. Deep down I’m a fan I think. I bought an awful Everton wristband when I was on holiday in Thailand last month. I was drunk of course but it felt right. This season they’ve occasionally shown glimmers of forming a Top 4 challenge only for them to hit the ceiling.
The last few weeks have been a prime example of that. Unbeaten in eight matches yet incapable of knocking out sides like Bournemouth and Norwich. It’s not good enough.
Even with home advantage they’ve failed to beat Watford and Crystal Palace and surrendered to Manchester United in meek fashion when going down 3-0 in October.
I fancy this Leicester side can get something on Saturday. They’ll be up to their eyeballs on Christmas cheer and I’ll side with them to avoid defeat at a very decent 13/15 with BetVictor.
Southampton v Tottenham | Saturday 15:00
This should be fun as Mauricio Pochettino returns to his old gaff in this Saturday afternoon match at St Mary’s and I’m expecting goals in this encounter.
Both sides go into this match under a cloud but it’s Southampton who have the most pressing concerns. Ronald Koeman’s side have dropped to the bottom half of the table after picking up just one point from their last 12.
To make matters worse their fixture list has hardly been scary. Yes, they went down 3-1 to Man City but dropping points to Aston Villa and losing to Stoke and Crystal Palace isn’t great. The time for them to step up is here with the shadow of their ex-manager hanging over the game.
The home form of Saints isn’t too bad with just one defeat in their five league matches on the South Coast. Crucially for me, they’ve scored in nine of their last 10 home matches in all competitions and I expect that run to continue as they bid to arrest their slide.
Another tick box for Southampton scoring is their opponents inability to keep a clean sheet. Spurs have leaked in nine of their last 11 matches and only managed a shutout against Qarabag and a limp Chelsea team.
Despite their recent setback against Newcastle it must be an exciting time to be a Spurs fan. This is a young side who have lost just twice in the league and spat five past Bournemouth and four past Man City, Monaco and West Ham.
My perfect barometer for judging this side is my good friend and Spurs fan Julian Betts. Reading his tweets you’ll get an honest assessment of the side and he seems to be buzzing at the moment.
Spurs have scored in 17 of their last 19 fixtures and in 10 of their last 11. They’ve been involved in Both Teams To Score matches in eight of their last 11 matches. Those are strong stats. I’ll be backing BTTS here.
West Brom v Bournemouth | Saturday 15:00
I’m off for my Christmas Day Out with my close friends on Saturday. Apart from drinking mulled wine, reviewing our years and engaging in numerous drunken hugs we also bet. This is my idea of the balls-out-make-or-break-bet-of-the-day.
I had West Brom chalked up at 11/10 here so I certainly got a little aroused when I saw 8/5 on the Baggies. What a tasty price, and unexpected after their performance against Liverpool last week.
Bournemouth themselves have their own back catalogue of excellent results of course. It’s essentially been the best fortnight in the club’s history with back-to-back wins over Chelsea and Manchester United.
While those were impressive results let’s not kid ourselves that these are vintage editions of those sides. Chelsea have fallen apart while the United team last Saturday looked skeletal to say the least.
Those results have given the Cherries every hope of staying up but let’s not forget they slipped up against Newcastle and Swansea just last month and I still reckon they’re Championship bound.
I backed West Brom +1.5 last week against Liverpool and there was never a moments doubt. They seem to be adapt at frustrating the big clubs so I hope they retain the same attitude here.
In the last month the Baggies have beaten Arsenal and drawn with Liverpool and Tottenham and have only lost to top half sides at The Hawthorns.
They’ve only lost to top-of-the-table Leicester at home in the league since September and also within that period have beaten Arsenal and Sunderland and drawn with Spurs on home soil. At 8/5 I have to back them here.
Everton v Leicester – Leicester +0.5 (13/15 BetVictor)
Southampton v Tottenham – Both Teams To Score (4/5 Ladbrokes)
West Brom v Bournemouth – West Brom to win (8/5 Bet365)
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