MORE Premier League profit for Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) last week. He’s back with his three best weekend bets here.
Norwich v Everton | Saturday 12:45 | BT Sport 1
Value. That’s what it’s all about isn’t it? Never underestimate the importance of prices and odds and that’s what’s got me excited here. I had Everton around the 11/8 mark in this match so with 31/20 available I have to get involved with them.
The Toffees lie 9th in the table four points off the Top 5 and that’s where I expect them to end up in May. They’re usually a straight-forward side to call.
All five of Everton’s Premier League wins this season have come against sides currently below them in the table and indeed all three of their defeats have come against sides above them. Easy eh?
Then you look at their draws. They’ve had seven of them and five have come against sides currently within four places of them in the table. This is a side built for betting on!
So on Saturday lunchtime they are at Norwich and looking at their previous form this season they look nailed on for a narrow win or a draw. The Draw No Bet price is 6/7 and that suits me.
While I’m confident Everton will finish between 7th and 10th this season I’m less confident of Norwich’s final position. The season began so well for the club with just two defeats from their opening seven fixtures.
Sadly since then it’s rather fallen apart with six losses in their last eight matches. Four points from 18. Worryingly for Norwich four of those six defeats came against sides below Everton in the table.
Things look like they could sticky for Norwich this season and surely Roberto Martinez will be targeting three points here. Everton’s 2015/16 form tells us that they have every chance of achieving that target on Saturday.
Sunderland v Watford | Saturday 15:00
Arsenal’s late goal last Saturday reduced my Sunderland -2 Asian Handicap bet to a push but it was another decent performance from the Black Cats as they continue to improve under the excellent Sam Allardyce.
I’m going to support them on Saturday against a Watford side who’ve surprised everyone this season with their stoic nature. The Hornets lie 10th in the table and have no fear of relegation.
I’m trying to list reasons why I’m taking them on here and to be honest it’s tough to find any bar the price. Sometimes you’ve just got big love for the other team and that’s the case here.
I had Sunderland finishing bottom in my season preview but I just can’t see that now with Allardyce in charge. Since the ex-West Ham manager took charge the club have gone P7 W3 D0 L4 with three of those four defeats against Top 10 sides.
At home their record reads P3 W2 D0 L1 and there definitely seems more buoyancy about the club and indeed in the stadium at the moment with their resurgent form kicking in.
On top of this, their last two victories have come against Crystal Palace and Stoke. That’s the same Palace side who sit Top 6 at the moment and that’s the same Stoke side that just beat Man City.
So while I have the utmost respect and admiration for Watford I want to board the Sunderland bandwagon here and in future weeks more than likely.
You can back them at 19/10 to win on Saturday but I wouldn’t be surprised if Watford took a point so the +0.25 poke on the Asian Handicap suits me perfectly at 5/7 with BetVictor. As long as they avoid defeat I’ll make profit.
Liverpool v West Brom | Sunday 16:00
Liverpool’s loss to Newcastle last Sunday reduced the hype levels on Jurgen Klopp a little. In fact some would say the defeat may have done him a favour in avoiding things getting out of hand but I doubt the German would agree.
Remember the days when Liverpool used to be far too short in the betting every week? Well it looks like they’re returning looking at the quotes for this game. 2/5 best price against West Brom? Do me a favour!
As soon as I saw that price I knew I had to find a way to get with the 9/1 Baggies. Let’s see if I can convince you to join me on this Sunday gamble.
West Brom lie 13th in the table, four points behind Liverpool. Albion have lost just two of their last seven matches and have recorded wins over Arsenal and an Allardyce influenced Sunderland while they’ve also held Tottenham.
Last season Tony Pulis’ side beat champions Chelsea, Manchester United, Spurs and Southampton. The Baggies don’t give a fig for reputations and they’ll be aiming to take something from this game.
Another interesting aspect of this match is West Brom’s decent record against Liverpool. Since 2012 they’ve met seven times in the league and boast a record of P7 W3 D2 L2; two of those victories came at Anfield.
More reasons? Well, it’s fair to say Liverpool have been less impressive at home under Klopp. While they’ve produced stunning away wins at Man City and Southampton, on home turf they’ve lost to Crystal Palace and edged past Swansea and Bournemouth.
Indeed Liverpool have failed to win by more than one goal at home since Klopp’s arrival and amazingly you have to go all the back to April since they achieved it in the league against Newcastle.
If that trend continues I’ll be on a winner as I’m backing West Brom +1.25 here at 9/10 with Bet365. Half my stake goes on West Brom +1 and the other half on West Brom +1.5.
Norwich v Everton – Everton Draw No Bet (4/5 BetVictor)
Sunderland v Watford – Sunderland +0.25 (5/7 BetVictor)
Liverpool v West Brom – West Brom +1.25 (9/10 Bet365)
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