EUROPE’s highest scoring league returns this weekend and Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) delivers his verdict on the best punting opportunities.
Stuttgart v Werder Bremen | Sunday 14.30 | BT Sport Europe
Both Stuttgart and Werder Bremen are shrouded in relegation toils coming into Sunday’s six-pointer and it’s fairly easy to see why. The Swabian hosts are second from bottom after their 4-1 smashing from Dortmund and are without a permanent head coach following the sacking of Alex Zorniger a fortnight ago.
VFB actually hold the dubious honour of Europe’s worst defensive record across the top-five divisions. Interim boss Jurgen Kramny is hoping to put a halt to their backline blues but it won’t be easy – Stuttgart have conceded 35 goals across 14 games, losing 10 and leaking at least four in each of their last three matches, all of which ended in defeat.
Bremen haven’t been faring much better, to be fair. Without a clean sheet to their name in 2015/16, Viktor Skrypnyk’s side have plummeted down the standings thanks to a run of eight losses in 10.
Werder are only above the relegation zone by three points and have conceded 28 goals. The River Islanders enraged fans with a limp derby defeat to Hamburg last time out and coming off a 6-0 battering by Wolfsburg, confidence is at rock bottom in the Bremen camp.
Still, the northerners have shown a willingness to play away from the pressures of their Weserstadion home, picking up three of their four Bundesliga victories on their travels.
But rather than attempt to take sides, our best option is to explore the goals markets. Stuttgart have delivered at least three goals in 20 of their past 24 Bundesliga battles with Over 3.5 Goals proving profitable in seven of their last 12 at the Mercedes Benz arena.
Only Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Leverkusen and Gladbach are averaging more on-target attempts than the Swabians whilst only Koln and Hannover have faced more this season. And it’s worth noting, VFB have smashed 29 goals past Bremen in their last nine home meetings.
Werder have delivered Over 2.5 Goals winners in 10/14 (71%) of their 2015/16 fixtures, as well as in eight of their past 11 road trips. Three of Bremen’s seven away days this term have featured at least four goals, as have exactly half (12/24) since the start of last season as they’ve kept just one clean sheet in that time.
I’ll adopt a conservative approach and invest in Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 8/11 with Bet365.
Koln v Augsburg | Saturday 14.30
The Bundesliga is well known for its high-scoring games but this is unlikely to be one of them.
Koln are tactically nestled into mid-table and well clear of danger. The Billy Goats are unbeaten in four (W1-D3-L0) but three of those fixtures have finished goalless and they’ve fired blanks in five of their last six.
Peter Stöger’s side have suffered just a solitary loss in 17 home league fixtures (W5-D11-L1) but five of those contests finished 0-0 with 13/17 featuring fewer than three goals whilst their last nine when welcoming bottom-half opposition have seen a grand total of just seven goals.
Koln haven’t scored a home goal in nearly six hours and although they’re masters in the art of organisation, defensive solidity and at times, the counter-attack, they tend to struggle to open up against similar standard opposition.
Augsburg appear over their early season blip (W3-D2-L3) and have climbed out of the bottom-two. Markus Weinzierl’s troops have kept back-to-back clean sheets for the first time this season but arrive on the back of their own goalless draw against Wolfsburg last Sunday.
Since the start of last season 13/23 (57%) of the Fuggerstädter’s road trips have delivered Under 2.5 Goals with 17/24 (71%) of Koln’s home counters following suit.
Given the two teams’ respective home/away Under 2.5 Goals records, we’re right to assume there’s a 64% possibility of a repeat. Translate that percentage chance into betting terms and we’re looking at an 8/15 shot. Matchbook are offering 5/6.
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 17.30 | BT Sport Europe
Dortmund put back-to-back defeats behind them as they crushed struggling Stuttgart 4-1 last Sunday. It was the Black & Yellows’ 10th win in 14 Bundesliga matches, confirming their place in second before this weekend’s intriguing contest at fellow high-flyers Wolfsburg.
Thomas Tuchel’s troops trail table-topping Bayern Munich by eight points but hold a seven-point cushion over the Wolves, who only managed a 0-0 draw at Augsburg. BVB have been head and shoulders above their domestic rivals bar Bayern this season but should be in for a real test of their credentials on Saturday evening.
The hosts are unbeaten in 29 home league games (winning 19 of their last 24), dropping just two points at the Volkswagen Arena this season. Whilst Dieter Hecking’s charges have been almost unstoppable in Lower Saxony, they’ve really struggled on the road. So they’ll be glad of their home comforts.
Wolfsburg have a vital Champions League tie with Manchester United to consider on Tuesday but I still expect them to be on song this Saturday. The Wolves have notched at least two goals in eight of their last nine at the Volkswagen, scoring 87% of their Bundesliga gaols in front of their home supporters.
Wolfsburg have won this fixture in each of the past two seasons and they held Dortmund the year previous. They’ve bagged victories in six of their last seven against top-half finishers last term and done likewise in all three against the league’s leading lights in 2015/16 also.
The Wolves will be without the suspended Dante but Timm Klose is a perfectly adequate replacement, and exciting forward Julian Draxler is back after a ban, giving the hosts an excellent chance. But for some reason they’re chalked up at odds as big as 16/5 with William Hill.
Dortmund have been outstanding this season but they’ve been beaten in their only two trips to the top-10 and for the good attacking play of Thomas Tuchel’s team this season, they’ve looked continually vulnerable at the back.
Neven Subotic should partner Sven Bender in defence with Mats Hummels and Sokratis suffering with a stomach bug and the same illness is likely to keep Julian Weigl sidelined. So it makes total sense to oppose the Black & Yellows and so I'll take the Wolves at a hugely enticing 21/20 in the Double Chance market from Bet365.
But there’s more opportunity to profit elsewhere. A huge 13 of Wolfsburg’s most recent 16 domestic dates when welcoming league opposition have featured three goals or more, including 10 of their previous 12 against top-six clubs. So punters should be advised to look towards the goals markets in what should be an entertaining encounter.
Both teams have scored in the last eight duels with those fixtures producing a whopping 34 goals. Throw in the fact, Dortmund have scored in every league game this term with 10 banking in the Both Teams To Score column and 11 featuring four or more goals and we look to have the perfect recipe for a goal-filled game.
Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score is the bet that gets me excited and at 4/5 (Bet365), I’m all over it.
Stuttgart v Werder Bremen | Sunday 14.30 | BT Sport Europe
Both Stuttgart and Werder Bremen are shrouded in relegation toils coming into Sunday’s six-pointer and it’s fairly easy to see why. The Swabian hosts are second from bottom after their 4-1 smashing from Dortmund and are without a permanent head coach following the sacking of Alex Zorniger a fortnight ago.
VFB actually hold the dubious honour of Europe’s worst defensive record across the top-five divisions. Interim boss Jurgen Kramny is hoping to put a halt to their backline blues but it won’t be easy – Stuttgart have conceded 35 goals across 14 games, losing 10 and leaking at least four in each of their last three matches, all of which ended in defeat.
Bremen haven’t been faring much better, to be fair. Without a clean sheet to their name in 2015/16, Viktor Skrypnyk’s side have plummeted down the standings thanks to a run of eight losses in 10.
Werder are only above the relegation zone by three points and have conceded 28 goals. The River Islanders enraged fans with a limp derby defeat to Hamburg last time out and coming off a 6-0 battering by Wolfsburg, confidence is at rock bottom in the Bremen camp.
Still, the northerners have shown a willingness to play away from the pressures of their Weserstadion home, picking up three of their four Bundesliga victories on their travels.
But rather than attempt to take sides, our best option is to explore the goals markets. Stuttgart have delivered at least three goals in 20 of their past 24 Bundesliga battles with Over 3.5 Goals proving profitable in seven of their last 12 at the Mercedes Benz arena.
Only Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Leverkusen and Gladbach are averaging more on-target attempts than the Swabians whilst only Koln and Hannover have faced more this season. And it’s worth noting, VFB have smashed 29 goals past Bremen in their last nine home meetings.
Werder have delivered Over 2.5 Goals winners in 10/14 (71%) of their 2015/16 fixtures, as well as in eight of their past 11 road trips. Three of Bremen’s seven away days this term have featured at least four goals, as have exactly half (12/24) since the start of last season as they’ve kept just one clean sheet in that time.
I’ll adopt a conservative approach and invest in Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 8/11 with Bet365.
Best Bets
Koln v Augsburg – Under 2.5 Goals (5/6 Matchbook)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund – Wolfsburg double chance (21/20 Bet365)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (4/5 Bet365)
Stuttgart v Werder Bremen – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (8/11 Bet365)
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